MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 6:20 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...477
FXUS64 KMOB 091120
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon
through the end of the week.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning can be expected with any storms.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area
beaches Friday night through the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
Forecast remains on track. MM/25
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The upper trough extending from the Ohio Valley to the Lower
Mississippi Valley will gradually deamplify as it moves slowly
eastward through tonight. An upper ridge over Florida, a small
portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will expand
northward on Friday to fill the void as a series of weak
shortwaves pass over the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge will get
nudged southward over the weekend as a stronger positively tilted
upper trough exits the Middle Mississippi Valley and moves slowly
southeastward, eventually settling along to the Eastern Seaboard
to the Northern Gulf as a large upper high builds over the central
CONUS. The combination of the upper trough and a weak surface low
pressure area reflected in the lower levels over our region will
result in an erratic light wind flow pattern at multiple levels,
but there is still a small chance of a backdoor cool front
slipping into our area from the northeast late Monday night.
The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with a 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon,
followed by a 20-40% chance on Friday as seabreezes push inland.
Rain chances will increase over the weekend with scattered to
numerous coverage on Saturday and numerous to widespread coverage
on Sunday. Looking into early next workweek, widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected Monday followed by numerous
coverage on Tuesday. As with all summertime convection, instances
of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds
and locally heavy downpours can be expected.
High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above
normal, ranging from 90-95 degrees. Lows will be about 4 to 9
degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland and upper 70s along
the coast. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77
degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range
from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as
high as 110 degrees. Cooler high temperatures will occur through
the first half of next week with the increase in cloud coverage an
rain chances. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region today.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible again
this afternoon, mainly over interior areas, temporarily reducing
flight category at times. Winds out of the south to southwest this
morning less than 5 knots strengthen to 5 to 10 knots by late
morning into the afternoon hours. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
A light to occasionally moderate generally southerly flow prevails
through Saturday, becoming southwesterly Sunday and westerly by
early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through
Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 93 76 92 76 / 10 10 40 10
Pensacola 92 81 92 80 / 20 20 30 0
Destin 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0
Evergreen 93 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 10
Waynesboro 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 20
Crestview 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 6:20 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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