CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 2:38 PM EDT770
FXUS61 KCLE 101838
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
238 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track. Overnight convection should taper off
over the next few hours. Locally heavy rainfall possible this
afternoon and evening in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon with heavy rain
possible in thunderstorms.
2) Temperatures begin to trend warmer starting early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A stationary boundary will drift south into the Ohio Valley through
this evening bringing increased precipitation chances to the region
with the support of an upper level vort max. Showers and
thunderstorms should fire along the boundary this afternoon as the
atmosphere begins to destabilize. Severe weather parameters are
generally on the lower end, so not anticipating any widespread
impacts. Though a strong thunderstorm wouldn't be out of the realm
of possibilities with MLCAPE near 1000-1500 J/kg and low level lapse
rates near 7-8 C/km supporting strong wind gusts from those storms.
Additionally, heavy rain will be a concern with slow storm motion
(10-15 mph) and high PW values (~1.7 in) across the region. The
southeastern counties would be the most probable to see any flooding
concerns though will be dependent on the location of the boundary
and where storms initiate. WPC has include that area in a slight
risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for today and will
need to be monitored as storms begin to fire off this afternoon.
Precipitation chances will decrease into the evening as the boundary
drifts to the south and upper level forcing moves off to the east.
On Saturday, another vort max will moves to the east of the region
that afternoon into the evening. This will bring a low end chance
for precipitation to mainly the southern and eastern counties up
into Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon. Dry weather is expected
starting Sunday as ridging builds into the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper level ridging will begin to build into the region on Sunday.
Generally, flow will be weak as the ridge sets up overhead through
Monday. Highs will be in the mid 80s on Sunday, increasing to the
upper 80s on Monday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s. On
Tuesday, the surface high will drift to the east and westerly
flow will take hold across the region. This will increase
temperatures for the middle of the week onwards with confidence
increasing in above average temperatures. An upper level trough
across Eastern Canada and Northeastern CONUS may keep
temperatures a touch cooler for those in far Eastern Ohio and
Northwestern Pennsylvania. Though, those finer details will be
worked out over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed across
northern Ohio this afternoon as a cold front slowly moves south.
The lake breeze should keep activity away from Cleveland and
Erie but thunderstorms are ongoing from TOL to near MFD, and
extending east to CAK and YNG. Included tempos for all inland
terminals this afternoon but will likely be done at TOL/FDY by
20Z. It is unclear at this time if YNG will get additional
storms later on. Humidity is high and thunderstorms are
producing heavy rain and IFR visibilities. Wind gusts are most
typically around 30-40 knots with an isolated gust to 50 knots
possible. Thunderstorms are expected to be done at terminals by
23Z.
Locations that receive heavy rain this afternoon have the
potential for fog to develop overnight. Mid and high cloud may
hang around through 06Z but could see visibilities start to
decline late tonight at MFD/CAK/YNG. Included MVFR visibilities
with a tempo for IFR visibilities. Conditions are expected to
improve quickly on Saturday morning.
Winds have generally been southwesterly ahead of the cold front,
veering to the north/northeast behind the front. Winds are out
of the east at TOL and north to northeast at CLE and ERI. Winds
will be light and variable overnight.
Outlook...VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
A front is pushing south across Ohio this afternoon with
northeasterly winds expected on Lake Erie on Saturday. The wind
forecast has trended slightly higher along the south shore of
Lake Erie and a moderate swim risk expected. Conditions will be
choppy but expected to be just below Advisory criteria with 2
to 4 foot waves. Northeast winds decrease Saturday night then
increase again on Sunday afternoon with winds around 15 knots
and waves around 2-3 feet.
Marine conditions improve Monday as high pressure builds
overhead. Winds become southwest Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure departs to the southeast. Waves generally expected to
be less than 1 foot.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ021>023-
029>033-037-038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 2:38 PM EDT---------------
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