JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 3:44 PM EDT918
FXUS63 KJKL 091944
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
344 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend.
- Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this
weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of
isolated to scattered flash flooding.
- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential
across the area through early Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
At 19Z, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
work across the area, with periods of heavy rain occurring within
them. These pop-up showers and storms will continue over the next
few hours, disipating with the loss of diurnal heating near or
around sunset. Temperatures around the area are generally in the mid
80s where convection hasn't tampered with the air, otherwise areas
that have seen rain/storms sit in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid to upper 60s. Patchy
valley fog may develop late this evening before mixing out Friday
morning.
Surface high pressure remains just east of the state, with a
shortwave over the Ozarks embedded within a positively tilted trough.
A surface cold front also extends across Western potions of the Ohio
Valley, extending back towards the Central Plains. As the embedded
shortwave continues to approach Kentucky through this evening, 500-
mb heights are expected to fall in advance of it. After a lull in
shower and storm activity this evening, chances increase in coverage
and intensity.
As high pressure sinks south of the area, broad flow around it will
continue transporting moisture rich air from southwest of the
forecast area. During the day Friday, model PWATs increase across
the area, close to if not exceeding 2 inches in places. These values
fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals when
looking at ECMWF Mean PWATs. Showers and thunderstorms in this
environment have the potential to produce gusty winds, and locally
heavy or torrential rainfall which could lead to instances of flash
flooding. The WPC continues to have the area under a slight risk for
excessive rainfall exceeding local flash flood guidance. The
probability of seeing enough rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance
remains across the Upper Cumberland River Basin (25% chance).
Later Friday afternoon and evening high pressure over SW CONUS will
build in coverage and intensity. With the high amplitude ridge
developing, the positively shortwave trough will propagate
southeastward towards the KY-TN areas of the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures Friday are expected to warm into the lower 80s before
cooling into the upper 60s Friday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
The period begins with a westerly mid-level jet stream across the
Ohio River Valley, including eastern Kentucky, ahead of a mid-level
low/trough and stacked surface low over northeastern Missouri and
western Illinois, with this feature only moving to the Lower Ohio
River Valley by Sunday morning as the circulation becomes detached
from the upper flow and becomes trapped by a massive upper high that
develops across the western and northern CONUS late this weekend
into next week. With continued warm advection and a quasi-stationary
front across the area, a risk for flash flooding with the potential
for rounds of heavy rain will remain through much of Saturday into
Saturday night.
Models strengthen this upper high to ~602-dm centered somewhere over
the MO Valley through early next week before it begins to gradually
weaken in place through the middle of next week. Most models are in
agreement in suppressing the remnants of the trapped mid-level low
and associated warm advection southward with time, with a gradual
diminishing of PoPs and Sky cover from north to south from the
second half of this weekend through the middle of next week as drier
northeasterly mid-level flow advects in from the northeast. A
marginal flash flood threat may persist across far
southern/southeastern parts of the forecast area into Sunday,
where better instability and moisture may linger along with
relatively weak flow aloft supporting slow storm motions.
The gradual drying and clearing trend through the period will also
support an increasing trend for high temperatures through the
period, but with highs still within a few degrees of normal in the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period, with lows in the 60s each
morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
Scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms have started this
afternoon and rounds of these showers and storms are expected
through this afternoon and evening. There may be a breif lull for
a few hours between 00Z and 06Z before more rounds work into the
area from the west. Showers and storms will increase in coverage
through Friday morning. With the scattered nature of these
showers and storms and a degree of uncertainty, PROB30 groups were
used through the TAF period. MVFR conditions will be likely with
occasional IFR conditions in and around storms. Outside of any
storm, winds will be fairly light and occasionally variable or out
of the southwest.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 3:44 PM EDT---------------
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