IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 1:56 AM EDT047
FXUS63 KIWX 070556
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
156 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected through Wednesday with temperatures
near normal or slightly above normal.
- There are additional chances of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026
A mid-level trough axis remains over the region today with a
surface low over northern Ohio directing moisture across the
local forecast area. Significant cloudiness persists over
northwest Ohio and northeast Indiana where showers and storms
are expected to redevelop this afternoon. Surface CAPE values
are forecast to increase to around 1500 J/kg, but bulk shear
will be weak at only around 10 to 15 kts. Therefore, severe
weather is not likely. The mid-level flow is also weak,
which translates to slow storm motion. This, combined with
precipitable water around 1.75 inches, could lead to brief
locally heavy rain. However, not expecting the heavy rainfall
threat to be as significant as yesterday. Except perhaps over
northwest Ohio downwind of Lake Erie, due to lake enhanced
convection as a result of very warm water temperatures of 78 to
80 degrees. Any lingering isolated/scattered showers should
diminish early this evening as the mid level trough axis finally
sags south of the local area.
Clouds may be slow to clear out tonight, especially across the
south and east, and winds will also stay up a little bit in
vicinity of the departing low, which would preclude fog
development in this area. The best chances for any patchy ground
fog will therefore be more northwest, although confidence is
still low. Otherwise, dry conditions will return for Tuesday
and Wednesday as high pressure noses in from the west. Northerly
flow will limit highs to the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Winds
will shift southerly on Wednesday and temperatures will then
rise into the mid to upper 80s.
Rain will return Thursday with the arrival of a shortwave
trough, followed by another wave on Friday. There will probably
be some lingering showers on Saturday, with drier conditions
again on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be near normal
through this period with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the
mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026
Stratus redevelopment on back side of departing system will be
the primary aviation weather concern this period. Higher
crossover temps south of KFWA vicinity could also promote some
patchy shallow fog, but it continues to appear that greatest
potential of fog/stratus development overnight will be just
south/southeast of KFWA. Surface observations indicate much of
this stratus development has bases in the 3-5k ft layer across
NW Ohio with some MVFR cigs farther south across west central
Ohio. Will continue with VFR conditions at both terminals
tonight, but may need to watch trends for possible briefly lower
cigs/vsbys at KFWA in the 10Z to 12Z period this morning. Broad
synoptic subsidence will allow for VFR conditions through the
remainder of this period. A weak low level height gradient
associated with anticyclone building in from the northwest will
assure north winds of 10 knots or less today, then becoming
light and variable or calm for this evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 1:56 AM EDT---------------
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