LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 11:45 AM EDT216
FXUS63 KLMK 021545
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1145 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Hot and humid conditions continue through the end of the week and
into the Independence Day holiday. Afternoon temperatures warming
the low-to-mid 90s and heat indices between 100-115 combined with
limited nighttime cooling will lead to adverse heat-related
impacts if precautions are not taken.
* Increasing afternoon and evening shower and storm chances are
expected this weekend into early next week. A few strong storms
with gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible.
* Unsettled, muggy weather continues through early-to-mid next week
with modest relief from hot temperatures likely.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Satellite and observations show mostly sunny skies across the region
late this morning. Temperatures were warm with readings in the
upper 80s to the very low 90s. Current heat indices were in the
upper 90s to the lower 100 range. Expect another diurnal Cu field
will develop this afternoon with highs topping out in the lower 90s
and heat index values topping out in the 105-109 degree range.
Looking at the afternoon, no significant weather is expected for the
next several hours. Looking at forecast soundings across the
region, we'll see plentiful instability develop with afternoon CAPE
values approaching 4000 J/kg. However, a continued warm layer aloft
should keep convection from firing across much of the region. The
exception may be over southern and western KY where the cap may be a
little weaker. Given the instability expected, SPC expanded the
Marginal risk up to the I-64 corridor, west of I-65 and introduced a
Slight risk down along the KY/TN border. Overall feeling is that
the Marginal risk is probably too expansive, since coverage is
likely to remain isolated at best. However, any storms that do
develop will contain a wet microburst threat of damaging winds. The
best chances for convection look to be between 3-9 PM EDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Early this morning, temperatures have dropped into the 70s across
most of central KY and southern IN, with a few locations in the
urban centers still near 80 degrees as of 06Z. The ample quantity of
near-sfc moisture with sfc dewpoints in the mid 70s will limit any
further cooling, with temperatures only dropping a few more degrees
between now and sunrise. The near-sfc moisture has also allowed for
patchy fog to develop, especially in river valleys, so we'll
continue mention of this in the forecast through around 8 AM.
Not much change is expected in the overall pattern today as ridging
aloft and high pressure near the sfc remains fairly stationary over
Appalachia. As has been the case the past few days, low-level
moisture should mix up into a scattered cu field during the late
morning hours, though temperatures should still quickly warm through
the 80s and approach 90 degrees by midday. By the afternoon hours,
temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid-to-
upper 70s should again lead to heat index values ranging from 100-
115 across the area. Be sure to take necessary heat precautions this
afternoon and evening, including limiting time outdoors, remaining
hydrated, and wearing light-colored clothing.
In addition to heat and humidity continuing, we will introduce a low
(10-25%) chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly
across south central KY. With the center of the upper ridge shifting
slightly eastward later today, there is expected to be modest
cooling around 700 mb, weakening the strength of the cap that has
been in place so far this week. 00Z hi-res guidance suite has
several solutions which have convection initiating over middle TN
this afternoon, with showers and storms approaching our southern KY
counties by early evening. If convection can fire, it will have
ample instability to work with, as HREF median SBCAPE progs show
around 4000 J/kg, with high-end progs showing 5000+ J/kg. Stronger,
taller storms will carry a damaging wind threat, as DCAPE and
microburst composite parameter values are elevated thanks to steep
low-level lapse rates and some mid-level dry air. The storm
potential should decrease quickly after sunset as the PBL stabilizes
and storm fuel dwindles.
Tonight, another muggy night is expected across the area with
temperatures slowly dropping through the 80s and into the mid-to-
upper 70s by Friday morning. Patchy fog development will again be
possible Friday morning, especially if any areas do see heavy rain
this afternoon/evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue on Friday with
upper-level ridging remaining the dominant feature over the
southeast US. Confidence in the temperature forecast will begin to
decrease as the coverage and potential for showers and storms
increases; however, 1000-850 mb thicknesses suggest the potential
that Friday could be the warmest day of the week, so no changes are
planned for the Extreme Heat Warning duration at this time.
The potential for showers and storms Friday and Saturday continues
to carry quite a bit of uncertainty. While very high amounts of
instability (4000+ J/kg SBCAPE) will remain, forcing mechanisms are
not well-defined, with mesoscale factors such as differential
heating and the locations of residual outflow boundaries likely
playing an important role in convective initiation. As a result,
we'll continue to advertise a low-end chance (20-30%) for storms
during the afternoon and evening barring any model convergence on a
more likely solution, and a washout for the 4th looks unlikely at
this time. Continued weak flow aloft will limit deep-layer shear,
with pulse convection and wet microbursts continuing to pose an
isolated damaging wind threat Friday into Saturday.
By the second half of the upcoming weekend, ridging over the
southeast US will begin to weaken as a weak shortwave brings a front
toward the region Sunday into Monday. This front should provide a
more well-defined forcing mechanism for showers and storms, and
coverage of showers and storms should be greater for the second half
of the weekend into early next week. Accordingly, the forecast
features higher (30-40%) PoPs Sunday into Monday. The increased
coverage of clouds, showers, and storms should cause high
temperatures to trend downward over the weekend, though upper 80s
and low 90s are still expected during this period. Nighttime lows
are expected to remain mild, only dropping into the 70s.
Early-to-mid next week, upper ridging is expected to build over the
northern Plains as shortwave troughing slides across the northeast
US. The sfc front associated with that shortwave is currently
expected to stall close to the Ohio Valley sometime early next week.
Along and south of this front, ensemble mean PW values will continue
to be anomalously high, with 1.5-1.75" PW continuing through the
first half of next week. Continued unsettled weather is likely with
the front in the vicinity, with scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms likely through the extended forecast period. This
expectation of unsettled weather is reflected in the CPC 6-10 and 8-
14 day precipitation outlook, which shows higher probabilities for
above normal precipitation across the region. Temperatures should
remain near or slightly above climo, with exact values varying based
on coverage of clouds and precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Patchy fog and mist should scatter out over the next few hours, with
moisture mixing up into another scattered cu field later this
morning. Aside from brief dips in VIS over the next 1-2 hours, VFR
conditions are expected through the current forecast period, along
with light and variable winds. Isolated TSRA remains possible at BWG
between 21-01Z, but the probability remains low enough to refrain
from PROB30 mention at this time. Tonight, patchy fog will again be
possible at most forecast sites after 06Z, but confidence is low
enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Friday for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Friday to 9 PM EDT /8
PM CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Friday for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Friday to 9 PM EDT /8
PM CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM....CSG
AVIATION.....CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 11:45 AM EDT---------------
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