LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 25, 5:51 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...194
FXUS64 KLIX 251051
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
551 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
- Complex of strong/isolated severe storms possible once again
today mainly for the afternoon/evening hours, with greater focus
for areas east of I-55.
- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 110F
starting Sunday into the new workweek with heat advisories
becoming increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The trough axis that has been delivering storm complexes to our
area will begin to shift its orientation a bit more NNW to SSE
today and again storms will develop and move down this axis
through the day today. Probabilities are a bit lower for severe
storms today, but with most ingredients still evevalated, we can't
rule a few out. This axis will get shoved farther east as we move
into Friday, but not alleviating rain chances. Storms will be
harder to develop over the weekend as well, but he heat will be on
due to full insolation from little cloud cover and stronger sub
inversion. We first reach those heat index levels for advisories
possibly as early as Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Not a ton of change in thinking from previous forecasts for Sunday
night through Monday night as a stout 595 decameter 500mb ridge axis
dominates the region. Warm and dry air in the mid and upper levels
of the atmosphere due to deep layer subsidence will be sufficient to
form a potent mid-level capping inversion. These conditions will
persist through Monday night with very low PoP in place. The only
rain chances that will occur are if temperatures rise to the
convective temperature in the mid 90s and enough low level
convergence along pre-existing mesoscale boundaries like the
seabreeze is in place to overcome the strong capping inversion.
Thus, a token 15 to 20 percent is in the forecast, mainly along the
coast and around the periphery of Lake Pontchartrain for very
isolated convective development. The potential for a few severe
storms will exist as as drier air aloft entrains into these deeper
updrafts resulting in some evaporative cooling within the updraft
itself. As the updraft cools, it could descend rapidly to the ground
and produce wet microburst damaging wind events. Otherwise, the
main concern through Monday will highs in the mid 90s combining with
dewpoints in the upper 70s to produce an extended period of extreme
heat in the region. Heat indices will easily climb to around 110
degrees each day, and heat advisories will be needed for the weekend
into early next week.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, the 500mb ridge will become more centered
over the Mid-Mississppi and Tennessee Valleys. This will place the
forecast area within the southern periphery of the ridge, and series
of weak inverted troughs and associated vorticity maxima will rotate
around the ridge and into our region both days. Increasing vorticity
and forcing aloft combined with ample instability and a slightly
weaker capping inversion aloft will support more convective
development both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Model sounding
analysis continues to show a high potential for damaging wind gusts
to accompany the deepest updrafts as drier air aloft is easily
entrained into these strong to severe storms. Forcing aloft will
also help these storms last longer and potentially form into either
a MCS or a bow echo as the convective complexes become cold pool
dominated. The convection will develop from the east and then sweep
westward across the forecast both days due to the prevailing
easterly flow in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures will remain
very warm with highs climbing back into the mid 90s and heat index
values climbing back to around 110 degrees before the storms
develop.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Conditions will be in and out of IFR to MVFR ranges at MCB until
mid morning. There should be VFR at all other terminals and the
rule for the day will be VFR for all sites unless visited by TSRA.
There is a high enough chance of TSRA along and east of a line
from MCB to ASD to show in this taf set for today. Tonight will
show the same areas with low cigs and possibly low vis but should
remain in lower MVFR levels where rainfall occurs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Surface high will move east bringing onshore flow back to the
coastal waters late today, which will remain through the weekend.
More thunderstorm complexes will surge southeast along a stationary
inland front through today, causing strong erratic winds in and near
these storms as they move offshore. Conditions improve over the
weekend as winds weaken to light and variable with high pressure
moving over the north central gulf. Winds will be higher in and near
any storms that develop.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 25, 5:51 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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