JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 7:56 PM EDT012
FXUS63 KJKL 142356
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
756 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce locally
heavy rain, along with strong to locally damaging wind gusts.
- Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast to begin the work
week. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday
morning may approach daily records, especially at Jackson.
- There is an increased risk for severe weather and flash flooding
with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the mid to
late week period (Wed-Fri). The location, magnitude, and timing
of this event will evolve over the next few days, so continue
to monitor forecasts.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
An early evening update was done, mainly for small changes to
timing of highest POP this evening and to lower the POP slightly
in our southwest counties where activity looks like it will be
more scattered. With little lightning present, have also trimmed
the thunder potential to nothing more than chance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
Cyclonically-curved zonal flow will persist on the south side of a
large-scale upper low/trough over southern Canada and the Great
Lakes region through the short-term period. An active jet stream
will persist across the area within this zonal flow.
A cold front will cross the area this evening and bring an end to
showers and thunderstorms after its passage. Cooler and drier air
then advects into the area, weakening through the overnight. Cold
advection will likely remain weak enough to still allow for fog
formation in the deeper river valleys, and possibly adjacent areas,
possibly dependent on rainfall from showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening before the cold front passage. A persistent
low stratus deck is also likely to persist through the night banked
against the higher terrain of southeastern Kentucky given the
additional forcing for ascent provided by a trailing shortwave
moving through the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are likely to drop
into the 50s areawide by dawn Monday.
Cooler and drier weather persists into Monday, with highs only
reaching the 70s, with a shallow scattered cumulus deck developing
with daytime heating, especially along and west of the escarpment.
At least partial clearing is expected with calm conditions Monday
night, setting the stage for a chilly night by mid-June standards.
Lows will fall into the upper 40s to mid-50s, coolest in and near
the river valleys, with widespread river valley fog expected given
the good radiational cooling conditions expected. These lows Tuesday
morning may threaten current daily records, especially at Jackson
Airport, where the current record low for June 16th is a
surprisingly high 54 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
There remains reasonable agreement among the various model suites to
begin the long term period. We will see one more day of drier
weather on Tuesday before it becomes more active. Afternoon highs
are still slated for the upper 70s to near 80, as high pressure
pushed east ahead of next upper level wave. A warm front is
expected to progress northward across the Lower Ohio Valley on
Wednesday ushering in a warm and moist airmass into eastern
Kentucky. This could lead to a smaller chance of showers and
storms mainly in the afternoon and evening at around the 15-25
percent range.
A more robust embedded shortwave will move from west to east
across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night. This will aid in
quickly deepening a surface low to futher activate the nearby
frontal boundary. The pattern will likely become more mesoscale
driven at times, with characteristics of a MCS like pattern
potentially setting up across the Ohio Valley. This makes
predictability on the lower side, but either way the pattern will
become increasingly more active especially by Thursday given the
synoptic features at play. Moisture will be abundant with model
suites showing around a 60 to 80 percent chance of seeing greater
than 1.75 PWAT values by Thursday. Another interesting feature
showing up in the deterministic data has been a southern stream
disturbance along and near the gulf coast and how that will play
into the moisture potential. The guidance continues to suggest
decent chance of seeing MUCAPE values climb to around 2000-3000
J/kg Thursday afternoon, but have seen this pool of instability
bounce around the CWA. The effective shear will be a bit more lack
luster at around 25-35 knots, but this could allow for at least
some organization of convection. Overall the main threat at this
point would be damaging winds given the high freezing levels noted
while sampling area forecast soundings. That said, there would be
a risk of heavy rainfall as well, with ample southwest flow and
good access to deep gulf moisture. Also noted, the high freezing
levels and aforementioned PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range
(Values running around 90th percentile or higher for this time of
year). The ECMWF EFI also noted a decent signal in the SOT
suggesting some heavy rain potential. The NBM deterministic data
would suggest we see on average around 2-2.5 inches of rain from
Wednesday afternoon into Friday. Something else to note Thursday
is there will be a strengthening low level jet and decent mixing
is noted in the forecast sounding data. This could aid in some
gusty winds even outside of thunderstorms in the 25-35 mph range,
with ECMWF EFI even more notable for strong wind potential and
GEFS showing similar signals in the various ensemble perturbations.
This setup bares watching through the week to see how the
guidance trends.
This boundary will move southward to end the week and this would aid
in bringing in drier weather by late next week into the weekend.
However, this could be short lived, as some guidance is showing
another storm system dropping in by Sunday. It should be noted
that the guidance really diverges at this later timescale.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
Showers and isolated thunderstorms were affecting many locations
at TAF issuance. They were most numerous over the northeastern
portion of the area and least numerous in the southwest. That
pattern should persist until a cold front moves through and the
precipitation ends from northwest to southeast this evening.
Localized IFR conditions will occur, but confidence is too low for
a specific forecast at TAF sites. Winds could also be rather gusty
with the leading showers over the eastern portion of the forecast
area early this evening, with gusts topping 30 kts possible.
Much drier air will arrive behind the front, but it may struggle a
bit initially to displace our moist low level air, especially in
southeast Kentucky. This could result in an MVFR cloud deck for a
time tonight, and some localized valley fog by dawn. At this time,
TAF sites are not forecast to be affected. VFR conditions are
expected everywhere by mid morning on Monday and will then carry
through the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 7:56 PM EDT---------------
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