Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #414 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY719
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0414
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Areas affected...portions of east Texas and Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 150829Z - 151429Z
Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expanding in
coverage in a pristine environment for heavy rainfall. Flash
flooding is possible on at least an isolated basis with this
activity.
Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
convection expanding in coverage generally along the I-10 corridor
from south-central Louisiana (near Lafayette) eastward to the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. The storms were in a pristine airmass for
flash flooding, with 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, 2.2+ inch PW values and
weak steering flow aloft (generally less than 10-15 knots)
supporting slow and erratic storm motions with locally heavy
rainfall. Areas of 2.5 inch/hr rain rates were already being
estimated nea MRMS south of Baton Rouge. Forcing for ascent was
not obvious, through it appears that subtle convergence along a
weak boundary draped east-to-west across the region was a likely
culprit for convective development. Weak convective inhibition
was also noted within the pre-convective airmass, and a weak
mid-level wave was noted per objective analyses/RAP over
southeastern Louisiana in the past hour.
CAMs suggest that these convective trends will continue. As
coverage of storms increases, areas of mergers and slow/erratic
propagation can be expected. This will enable for more areas of
localized 3+ inch/hr rain rates to occur at times -- especially
along the I-10/12 corridor in south Louisiana and coastal
Mississippi. CAMs also depict potential for convective
development farther west and north into the Sabine River Valley
and I-20 in Shreveport, and a similar thermodynamic/kinematic
profile exists in those areas for slow-moving convection and
eventual heavy rain rates. A few instances of flash flooding are
expected - especially where these heavier downpours occur over
locally sensitive and/or urbanized areas.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 32529293 31949172 31249016 30848872 30438818
29698851 29118907 28969010 29159145 29529330
29729436 30649500 31859495 32359439
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #414 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY---------------
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