MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 6:20 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...616
FXUS64 KMOB 131120
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
- Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend with
afternoon heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees.
- A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue through early next
week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a
HIGH risk by Wednesday.
- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly for
early to mid next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Looking at the current package, the KMOB radar is showing bands of
light showers over the northern Gulf. Nothing serious at this
time, though conditions remain good for classic waterspouts to
form over Gulf protected waters. Otherwise, everything is on track
with no updates needed at this time. /16
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Heat and humidity will persist through the weekend with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values topping out
in the 100-105 range both afternoons. Overnight lows will only fall
into the upper 70s near the coast, providing little relief.
As the upper ridge begins to weaken and moisture increases, somewhat
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon, especially along the advancing sea breeze boundary and
over the interior. Latest CAM guidance suggests lower overall
coverage of showers and storms on Sunday, likely due to lack of
forcing and a weak capping inversion.
Rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase substantially on
Monday as a deep tropical air mass settles into the area and ridging
becomes suppressed to the southeast by a deepening large-scale
trough. Storms appear most likely over the interior on Monday,
eventually spreading to the coast by Tuesday as a cold front pushes
south into the area and stalls. Ensemble guidance continues to
indicate PWATs exceeding 2.25 inches across portions of the area
Monday into Tuesday, surpassing the 99th percentile of climatology.
Combined with boundary-parallel storm motions, training convection
may develop and produce localized flash flooding. The location of
the stalled boundary will ultimately determine where the heaviest
rainfall occurs. The WPC has placed the northwestern portion of the
forecast area under a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Monday,
with nearly the entire area included in a slight risk for Tuesday.
The heavy rain and flash flood potential will likely continue into
Wednesday for portions of the area before forecast confidence
decreases. Details regarding the heavy rain and flash flood threat
will be refined as confidence increases. On the bright side, the
rainfall and increased cloud cover will provide at least temporary
relief from the heat with many spots likely remaining the 70s on
Tuesday.
A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue at all area beaches
through early next week. Onshore flow is expected to strengthen by
the middle of next week, resulting in a HIGH risk of rip currents by
Wednesday. JGC/98
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
General VFR conditions expected over the forecast area with local
drops to IFR due to fog. Am expecting these drops to be few and
far between. Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Saturday will again bring local drops in
conditions, mainly to low end MVFR.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
A diurnal pattern of light westerly to northwesterly flow in the
morning and southwesterly flow during the afternoon and evening is
expected this weekend. A moderate southwest flow early next week
should gradually veer to more southerly by midweek with an increasing
onshore component. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also be on
the increase next week. Locally higher winds and seas will be
possible near and around thunderstorms. 98/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 92 74 94 77 / 30 10 10 30
Pensacola 92 79 93 79 / 30 10 20 30
Destin 89 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 20
Evergreen 94 75 94 75 / 40 20 10 40
Waynesboro 92 74 94 74 / 30 10 10 60
Camden 93 75 92 73 / 30 10 20 50
Crestview 95 74 95 76 / 50 10 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 6:20 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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