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446 FXUS64 KLIX 010513AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1113 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - A surface low will approach the area today from the southwest, spreading light to moderate rain across the area. Best timing will be from late morning through around daybreak Tuesday. Area averaged rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5" can be expected, but could see a band of locally greater rainfall totals of 1.5-2+" for NW or central areas. - Much colder air filters into the region following this system, providing another freeze for areas along/north of I-10/12 Wednesday morning. - This active pattern continues going into Thursday and Friday, with another system expected to deliver rain to the area. More details on this system will become clearer over the next few days. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025Plenty to discuss tonight as we've entered a temporary lullbetween two systems. The first one earlier today produced lightshowers for a few areas, dissipating towards the east leaving onlydrizzle behind and since, has turned fully dry across the entirearea. Meanwhile, CAA has built into the region following a frontalpassage introducing noticeably cooler air to the area. Had to play a little catchup with temperatures earlier as CAA overwhelmedthe diurnal curvature late afternoon into the evening, revealing a slight reduction and has since lowered MinT's towards Monday morning towards the cooler side of guidance (blend of 75th and 50th, deterministic was above the 75th) to follow this trend. Monday starts out cool and cloudy for all areas, while we shiftour focus to the southwest at our next system. A subtle impulsecrossing the Mexican plateau, coupled with an approaching positivetilt shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies will support downstream divergence and eventual low-genisis in the western Gulf, riding this low northeast over the remnant frontal boundary during the day on Monday into Monday night. Quite the overall dynamic meteorological setup with a broad low passing generally over out coastal/marine areas, with plenty going on in the meteorological realm. Greatest/strongest 300k isentropic lift/ascent will remain confined near the low and to the east, supporting increasing shower activity spreading inland over coastal MS/AL, meanwhile, overrunning deeper curl-back of H6-H7 isentropic ascent combined with dynamic ascent will support an elevated shield of stratiform precipitation to the northwest. As mentioned for a few days now, the synoptic support for a deformation band to form remains possible somewhere from Lafayetteto Hattiesburg, as the RRFS-A continues to depict and now, to a slightly lesser extent, recent HRRR runs. Going through the HREF suite shows a diverse number of solutions representing different banding intensities (NAM Nest and HRW NSSL being the mostprominent along with the RRFS-A, with the recent HRRR and ARW/FV3mix being a bit more "watered down" - no pun intended). Regardless, the more extreme members depict a very noticeable higher QPF corridor, somewhere in the 2-3" range in the corridor mentioned earlier, with more widespread 0.5-1.5" elsewhere. I'm not seeing any distinctly concerning impacts related to this potential band, as rainfall intensities in an elevated stratiform shield should be relatively moderate and over a longer duration, at best. Probably slow enough to allow the ground to soak up some of this water, which we need. We'll monitor if this band is more intense and is slow in any eastward progression (resulting in training), where flooding could occur but for now, concur with thearea- wide marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Additional notes include seeing some 100-200j/KG MUCAPE across theregion, could have a rumble of thunder or two but kept the bestprobabilities/mention of thunder confined closer to thesteepest/strongest isentropic ascent near and to the east of thelow's track. Might also get a few strong to locally severe stormsin the warm sector or closest to the lift associated with the low.Also, highs during the day on Monday were nudged down due to widespread cloud cover and light stratiform showers building into the region during the morning/afternoon, probably starting as virga as we've got quite the dry layer aloft between H7-H5 per the 00ZKLIX RAOB.All rain departs early Tuesday morning to around daybreak Tuesday,becoming lighter with time and CAA/NW winds build into the region.Skies clear out as we get into the late morning/afternoon butstill overall chilly with highs primarily in the 50's with abreezy NW wind. That'll bring us to Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the bulk ofthe continental polar airmass settles into the region supported bya surface high over the northern Gulf. Clear skies and calm windswill support maximized radiational cooling to bring a cold nightfor all areas. Guidance coming in pretty warm, above the 75thpercentile and did add in a nudge down below the 75th, this bringsbelow freezing temperatures along and north of the I-10/12corridor, where Freeze Warnings will likely be in effect. Notreaching the Southshore yet with upper 30's to low 40's. KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025High pressure builds east of the region during the day onWednesday, producing a steady E to SE sfc return flow back to thearea. The next system is ready to take shape over the southernUS/western Gulf in a similar setup to what we'll see today - apositive tilt trough diving into the central/southern Rockies anda secondary upper-level low over Baja ejecting energy NE acrossthe Mexican Plateau. Build WAA and dynamic ascent in the regionwill support yet another round of showers Thursday into Friday.Still have some questions on specifics, but will wait for as weget closer but it is looking likely we'll see another soakerThursday and Friday. We try to see a brief dry period getting intoSaturday, but it looks short-lived as long-range guidance hints ata pretty active quasi-zontal H5 pattern over the US, providingquick-hitting systems to continue. Something to monitor. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025Focus tonight will continue to be low CIGs for almost allterminals, providing IFR to times of LIFR across the region. Could see a brief period of some improvement from 10-14Z this morning, but will be intermittent, potentially providing MVFR at times. The next system approaches the area from the southwest later Monday morning, lasting into the overnight hours. Expecting SHRA for all terminals, causing periodic lower VIS and low CIG's reducing flight categories. SHRA activity departs after 06Z TUE before being fully out of the area around 12-15Z TUE and NW winds build into the region. KLG&&.MARINE...Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025Changes since last update: Added Small Craft Advisory for GMZ575 and 577 in effect through noon Monday. Exercise caution for all waters expect MS sound and Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas from Noon Monday through 9PM Monday night. New: Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters 9PM Monday through 3PM Tuesday.Tonight, a recent frontal passage has introduced gusty wind at around 18-22kts from the NE, which will persist overnight into Monday morning ahead of the next developing surface low over the western Gulf. As this low drifts northeast, it'll cross gulf waters providing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms primarily from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. In any one storm, waterspouts, winds <34kts and locally higher waves/seas can be expected. As this low passes, confidence on how strong winds will remain outside of thunderstorms remains in question. There is now exercise caution headlines as the low passes, but could be upgraded to advisory if conditions warrant. Then, as the low passes early Tuesday to the NE, strong NW winds will increase across waters at around 15-20kts, with the 2nd round of Advisory headlines in effect. Waves/seas will respond reaching around 5-7ft in this time frame mainly for Gulf waters, 3-5ft for protected waters. High pressure builds into the region mid-week, with winds and waves/seas calming down, but still expecting another system to impact the region Thursday and Friday, with increasing winds and shower/thunderstorm activity expected.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 41 53 37 49 / 20 90 100 10 BTR 44 59 39 52 / 20 90 100 10 ASD 42 64 42 55 / 10 70 100 10 MSY 51 64 47 56 / 10 70 100 10 GPT 47 64 46 57 / 10 60 100 10 PQL 44 64 46 58 / 10 60 100 20 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
