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817 FXUS64 KLIX 280559AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1159 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Potential for a brief light freeze tonight for some areas north of Lake Pontchartrain and along Mississippi coast. This is primarily in the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins. - Hazardous marine conditions through early next week. - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday, with a second period of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night and Tuesday. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025A more zonal flow pattern in the mid and upper levels will developacross the Gulf South today and tomorrow as the longwave troughdominating the region the last few days lifts out of the area.This zonal flow pattern will allow for a gradual temperaturerecovery, but the lingering effects of a 925mb thermal trough axiswill keep temperatures below average today into tonight. Theairmass will also remain exceedingly dry with PWATS lingering near0.30 inches, or around the 25th percentile for late November. As aresult, another cool night is on tap for Friday night with lowsdropping into the mid to upper 30s north of the I-10/12 corridor. The one difference from this morning is that increasing cloudcover is likely to result in the overnight lows occurring closerto midnight before steadying off or even rising slightly beforesunrise. As a surface high pulls to the east, winds will begin toveer to a more easterly and eventually southeasterly direction onSaturday, and temperatures will warm back to more average readings for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This onshore flow will also start to advect in Gulf moisture, and PWATS are expected to rise from the 25th percentile in the morning to the 75th percentile by late evening on Saturday. As this moisture increases, a deepening trough axis and associatedfrontal boundary will push into the region. Increased deep layerforcing and ample moisture will support a broad area of scatteredto numerous rain shower development by Saturday night across theentire region. These periods of showers will persist into Sundayafternoon as the trough axis quickly sweeps through. As the trough pulls out of the region leaving behind a stalled frontal boundaryalong the coast Sunday, lingering scattered showers will continuethrough the night. This will be due to both moisture convergence along the frontal boundary and some weak isentropic lift over thecooler surface based airmass as winds in the mid-levels remainsoutherly and southwesterly. Speaking of the surface based coldpool, temperatures on Sunday will see a wide gradient withreadings only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s north of thefront in southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge metro, butreadings climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s in coastalMississippi, metro New Orleans, and coastal Louisiana. Lows willalso see a decent gradient with the front stalled on the Louisianacoast with readings dropping into the 40s north of I-10 and lower50s south of I-10 Sunday night. Overall, confidence has increasedthat the front will clear most of the land based zones by Sundaynight as the ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS fall into better agreementthis evening. The NBM also has a greater weighting toward thiscooler solution for Sunday night. &&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night)Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025Forecast confidence has increased as we head into Monday andMonday night due to the model guidance finally beginning to comeinto better agreement. Temperature spread between the models hasdecreased to around 10 degrees on Monday, and have opted tolargely split the difference between the models for my forecast byusing NBM 50th percentile values for my daytime highs andovernight lows Monday into Monday night. This results in daytimehighs on Monday ranging from the lower 50s over southwestMississippi to the lower 60s along the coast and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s in southwest Mississippi to the lower 50s along the Louisiana coast Monday night.The pattern will remain very progressive with another southern stream trough passing through the area Monday into Monday night.Ample forcing will be in place as both a highly difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet positioning form over a region of enhanced baroclincity in the northern Gulf. A rapidly deepening Gulf low will start to form on Monday and pass directly throughthe region Monday night. In the mid- levels, strong isentropicforcing over the cooler surface based airmass to the north of thefront will also help to support widespread moderate to heavystratiform rainfall development from Monday afternoon throughMonday night. PWATS are forecast to rise to daily max value of around 1.5 inches, and heavy rainfall will be a concern Monday into Monday night. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches could occur. Fortunately, any surface based thunderstorm activity looks to belimited to the offshore waters and possibly areas along theimmediate coast Monday night. To the immediate north of the front, mid- level lapse rates may support an isolated elevated thunderstorm within broader stratiform rain shield, butthunderstorm chances diminish to near zero closer to the I-10corridor. All of the model guidance is good agreement that a stronger frontal boundary will sweep through the region on Tuesday andrainfall should quickly come to end by early Tuesday morning. Adrier and colder airmass will advect in behind the front andlinger over the area through Wednesday. As this colder airmasssettles in, highs will struggle to climb into the mid 50s Tuesdayafternoon and overnight lows will easily fall below freezing alongand north of the I-10/12 corridor. South of I-10/12, lows will dipinto the upper 30s and lower 40s. Conditions will remain cold onWednesday with readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower60s, but the next trough axis in the persistent zonal flow patternaloft will be quickly approaching the area by Wednesday night. Aswinds begin to veer back to the east and southeast, low levelmoisture advection will take hold. Lows will remain chillyWednesday night as temperatures fall into the 40s and lower 50s,but highs will be closer to average on Thursday as readings riseinto the 60s. At the same time, PWATS will once again surge backto daily max values over 1.5 inches on Thursday, and the nextsouthern stream trough will move into the region. The combinationof forcing and instability will allow for another round of rain tomove into the region for Thursday and Thursday night. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025A very dry and stable high pressure system over the area will keepVFR conditions in place at all of the terminals through the entireforecast period. Gusty north and northeast winds will persistthrough the period at NEW as stronger winds aloft continue to mixdown over the warmer lake waters. At MSY, north-northeast winds will peak around 12 knots with higher gusts, but will relax by the late morning hours.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025Although the pressure gradient over the coastal waters will weaken slightly today and tomorrow, winds will still remain elevated at near 20 knots through Saturday morning over the open Gulf waters. For the lakes and sounds, slightly lower winds of around 15 knots are expected. Given these conditions, the small craft advisory has been extended in time for the open Gulf waters through midday on Saturday. The pressure gradient will further weaken Saturday night and Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region. The front is projected to push through the waters and stall over the northern Gulf Sunday night. Colder air will move back into the area, and winds will once again increase into small craft advisory range from Sunday night into Monday. At the same time, a deepening low pressure system will pass through the waters Monday into Monday night, and a surge of much drier and colder air into the area in the wake of the low will keep small craft advisory conditions in place through at least Tuesday morning. Winds and seas should then gradually decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday as a surface highbuilds over the area.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 33 57 35 65 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 36 59 40 70 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 32 60 34 70 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 44 59 47 71 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 36 60 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 31 60 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536- 538. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ552-555-557- 570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
