JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 2:35 PM EST972
FXUS63 KJKL 051935
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
235 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
period, although confidence remains low in each passing system's
precipitation type and accumulation forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
The most recent surface analysis indicates that low pressure system
from last night and this morning is propagating eastward and is
positioned near the North Carolina Outer Banks as of the 1627Z
surface analysis. To the north and northwest, minor disturbances are
progressing within the mean flow but are having very little impact
on the local area. Locally, while it doesn't seem like it, surface
high pressure centers situated to the southwest and northeast are
exerting their influence over the JKL CWA.
Surface high pressure is anticipated to prevail over the region for
the remainder of the day and throughout much of the current forecast
period. However, low-level moisture is projected to persist, trapped
beneath a robust inversion situated near the 800 mb level. This
trapped moisture will maintain widespread stratus clouds across the
majority of the region. While diurnal heating may induce temporary
breaks in the cloud deck, nocturnal saturation will swiftly
reestablish the cloud cover, ensuring the persistence of the stratus
layer.
Saturday's weather will be largely similar to today's, with the
notable exception of the approach of a weak, mostly dry cold front.
This feature originates from then an upper-level perturbation
tracking through a quasi-stationary H5 trough anchored over the
Hudson Bay region. The primary upper-level disturbance and surface
wave is forecast to remain largely over southern Canada, but its
associated frontal features are expected to propagate across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Based on forecast soundings, a
discernible layer of low-level dry air is present, which will
effectively limit the overall PoP potential for Saturday. However,
isolated sprinkles or flurries cannot be entirely dismissed,
particularly for locations along and north of the I-64 corridor.
Aside from this transient wave, areas south of the I-64 corridor
will be under the influence of surface high pressure leading to dry
conditions. Following the passage of this weak wave, surface high
pressure is expected to rebuild and come to dominate the weather for
the rest of the short-term forecast period.
The overall forecast period is anticipated to remain dry, punctuated
only by localized areas of drizzle this afternoon and the potential
for sprinkles and flurries on Saturday. Temperatures will remain
below the seasonal average. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the mid to upper 30s today and upper 30s to mid 40s for Saturday.
Overnight low temperatures will be comparatively mild, falling into
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Any period of significant cloud breaks
overnight could allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
After a cold and dry start to the long term forecast period on
Saturday evening, wet weather looks to return to Eastern Kentucky on
Sunday. A shortwave disturbance is forecast to propagate towards the
Ohio River Valley in this time frame as better-defined midlevel
troughing lingers over the Great Lakes. The cold front associated
with that troughing will likely come to a crawl north of the
forecast area on Saturday night. The approach of that secondary
disturbance on Sunday will shift winds in the lower portions of the
column towards the southwest before the surface cold front gets
dragged into the forecast area on Sunday evening. Thus, warm air
advection will allow temperatures to climb into the mid/upper 40s on
Sunday afternoon as increasing atmospheric moisture leads to
widespread PoPs. Precipitation is forecast to begin as rain on
Sunday afternoon, although potent cold air advection on the backside
of the boundary will lead to plummeting temperatures on Sunday
night. Guidance collectively depicts subzero 850mb temperatures
spreading across the forecast area after sunset, which supports some
snowflakes mixing in as precipitation tapers off from NW to SE
overnight. LREF Grand Ensemble probabilities of accumulating
snowfall have ticked up relative to this time yesterday. There is
currently a 40-60% chance of seeing at least 0.1 inches of snow in
most of the forecast area for the 24 hour period ending at 1PM
Monday. The highest probabilities continue to be depicted in
locations north and east of the KY-15 corridor, but these values
steadily drop off with increasing accumulation thresholds. This
reinforces the idea that QPF with this system will be rather light,
and the risk for widespread winter weather impacts currently appears
low. Nevertheless, we will closely monitor trends in the data as
this system enters the temporal range of higher-resolution forecast
models.
A continental high pressure system is forecast to build into the
area in the wake of this system, leading to persistent cold air
advection via north-northeasterly flow on Monday. After widespread
mornings lows in the 20s, temperatures will struggle to climb much
higher than the mid 30s. If post-frontal low-level stratus hangs
around into the afternoon hours and there is snow on the ground,
temperatures could under-perform the current forecast MaxT values.
The high shifts east overnight into Tuesday, which should foster a
clearing trend and a return to SW surface flow by Tuesday afternoon.
Ridge-valley temperature splits appear possible on Monday night,
with MinTs in the lower 20s possibly dropping down into the teens in
the coolest valleys. Warm air advection will allow temps to recover
into the low/mid 40s on Tuesday afternoon, setting the stage for a
warmer, wet, and windy Wednesday.
Models develop a rather deep surface low pressure system to the
northwest of the forecast area by midweek as southwesterly flow
continues around the backside of the surface high here in the
commonwealth. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, winds
will intensify and become quite gusty. The GFS remains much more
aggressive than its European counterparts with Wednesday's winds,
but confidence is increasing in the potential for gusts in excess of
25-30 mph. Regardless of wind magnitude, the strong SW flow regime
will lead to rather efficient warm air advection. Forecast highs
have trended upwards accordingly, and locations south of the I-64
corridor could see MaxTs in the lower 50s on Wednesday afternoon. As
the aforementioned low and its frontal boundaries approach the area
on Wednesday, precipitation chances will increase. The antecedent
warmth favors a plain, liquid rain at the onset of the system, but
the exact evolution of the synoptic pattern into Thursday remains
uncertain. A changeover to wintery precipitation cannot be ruled out
on the backside of this system, but it remains difficult to pinpoint
specific details regarding accumulations and p-type timing at this
moment in time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
LIFR to low-end MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through
much of the forecast period as a layer of moisture is trapped
under an inversion. Until this inversion breaks, low-CIGS can be
expected. A few breaks in the clouds will be possible this
afternoon but those breaks will be short-lived. Otherwise, the
period will be LIFR to MVFR. Guidance does have improvement to VFR
toward 18Z/Saturday and opted to trend that route in the TAF.
Lastly, winds will be light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 2:35 PM EST---------------
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