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615 FXUS64 KMOB 290511AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL1111 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning, and possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as well. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday.&&.DISCUSSION...Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025An upper trof advances across the Plains then ejects off acrossthe northeast states through Sunday night. An associated surfacelow is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area onSunday. Instability continues to look limited ahead of the frontalpassage and am not expecting strong storm development. Dryconditions on Saturday will be followed by slight chance to likelypops on Sunday (highest pops over northwest portion). Rain chancestaper to dry conditions Sunday night. A large positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves over the central and western CONUS, then takes on a meridional orientation and also deamplifies whileprogressing across the eastern states mainly on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then zips off across the forecast area Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Depending on the ultimatetrajectory of the surface low, it's possible that MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg could be realized late Monday night into early Tuesday morning over the coastal counties, tapering to much lower values further inland. Plenty of favorable shear may also be in place, but considering uncertainty with the trajectory of the surface low, will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with mostly chance pops for Monday and categorical pops for Mondaynight then tapering to dry conditions on Tuesday/early Tuesday evening.Dry conditions are expected Wednesday while another upper trofswings into the western states. There is a lot of uncertainty withthe eventual movement of the upper trof which could translate intothe central CONUS through Friday, or even make it into the easternstates. Either way, a series of shortwaves look set to move acrossthe forecast area on Thursday which will support slight chance tochance pops, then have gone with good chance pops for Friday as the pattern should support scattered coverage regardless of whattranspires. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 60s then Sunday ranges from around 60 well inland to the lower 70s near the coast. Highs trend cooler through Wednesday to range fromthe lower/mid 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. Highsmoderate a bit by Friday to range from the mid 50s well inland tothe mid 60s at the coast. Lows Saturday night range from the lower40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast, then lows Sundaynight range from around 40 well inland to the lower 50s at thecoast. Lows moderate Monday night then Tuesday night will be cooland range from around 30 well inland to the upper 30s near thecoast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer by Thursday night torange from around 40 well inland to near 50 at the coast. Amoderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, then ahigh risk follows for Monday night and Tuesday. A low rip currentrisk is expected by Wednesday. /29&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening. Winds willbe calm or light and variable winds over interior areas overnight,with a northeasterly flow around 5 knots closer to the coast. Asoutheasterly flow at 5-10 knots develops on Saturday. /29&&.MARINE...Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025Moderate to strong easterly winds diminish on Saturday and become southeasterly. Have continued with a Small Craft Advisory until15Z Saturday for the open Gulf waters and will mention small craftshould exercise caution tonight mainly for southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. An offshore flow develops on Sunday as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to occasionally strong Sunday night then becomes easterly on Monday. An onshore flow develops Monday evening then switches to the northwest Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. ASmall Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waterslate Monday night through early Tuesday evening. /29&&.FIRE WEATHER...Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% on Saturday overinterior southwest Alabama, south central Alabama, and a smallportion of the interior western Florida panhandle. 20 ft windspeeds will remain below critical levels (around 10 mph), and theSignificant Fire Potential will be low so will just monitor at this point. /29&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 39 64 51 70 / 0 0 10 30 Pensacola 45 63 56 71 / 0 0 10 20 Destin 44 64 56 71 / 0 0 10 20 Evergreen 32 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 30 Waynesboro 34 60 45 60 / 0 0 30 60 Camden 32 59 43 60 / 0 0 10 50 Crestview 33 63 46 73 / 0 0 0 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.&&$$
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Topic: [Alert]MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 11:11 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... (Read 109 times)
