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292 FXUS64 KMOB 281751AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL1151 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches Friday night through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday. - Low relative humidity values on Friday along with the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire danger and will be monitored.&&.DISCUSSION...Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025Now through Friday...KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft over protected and open Gulf waters through Saturday morning. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches Friday night through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday. - Low relative humidity values on Friday along with the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire danger and will be monitored.An upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, with zonal upper flow setting up over the Southeast into the weekend. Upper level shortwave energy ahead of a deep upper trough digs south over the western Conus the rest of the work week. Surface high pressure north of the forecast area at this time moves to the East Coast by late Saturday, restoring onshore flow to the forecast area and nearby tonight into Saturday. The current dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 values of 0.20-0.33") begins to moisten Saturday, rising to around 1.3-1.5" Sunday. The zonal upper flow over the Southeast helps to direct the stronger upper trough well north of the northern Gulf coast as it moves east from the western Conus. Weaker impulses pass over the region over region Sunday, with a cold front moving over the forecast area late Sunday into Sunday night. This front stalls over the northern Gulf by Monday. More shortwave energy moves over the northern Gulf coast Monday into Tuesday, guidance is advertising a surface low developing on the stalled surface front over the northwestern Gulf Monday, then moving northeast over/near the forecast area late Monday/Monday night (ultimate path and timing of passage vary in the guidance). Isentropic upglide showers develop ahead of the developing surface low, with enough instability just north of the boundary and points south for rumbles to mix in. With the inconsistency in the guidance, have less confidence on where the rumbles occur or any types/placement of rowdy storms. Inconsistency in model solutions continue through the end of the forecast, with some models advertising a passing shortwave bringing rain back to the forecast area late Thursday through Friday. Taking a step back and looking at Sunday's weather, instability is modest (MUCapes < 1000J/kg) and confined to the coast and south. Guidance is advertising some upper divergence with the passing shortwave energy, along with Bulk Wind Shear around 40kts coincident with the instability, mainly near the coast. Enough directional wind shear for spinners will be confined to areas along and south of the front. Where remains hard to pin down, with guidance indicating some northward movement of the stalled boundary inland as a warm front, but quick passage of the passing energy, plus ultimate positioning of the stalling cold front, northward movement of the warm front will be limited and confined to areas south of I-10 at its most northerly. Will need to keep an eye on this. High temperatures are going to see a roller coaster through the forecast, with mid 50s to near 60 today rising to around 60 northwestern areas to low 70s southeast of I-65 Sunday. The same northwest to southeast gradient continues through Tuesday, though drops into the low 50s northwest of New Augusta to Thomasville line to the low 60s over coastal Florida. By Friday, high temperatures have climbed back into the 60s over the forecast area. Low temperatures see the same roller coast, with low to mid 30s north of I-10/upper 30s to around 40 south tonight rising to the mid 40s northeast to low 50s over the southwestern third of the forecast area Saturday night. Sunday's system shifts the temperatures over the forecast area to a northwest to southeast banding, with around 40 northwestern-most portions of the forecast area to the upper 50s well south of I-65. 30s return to most of the forecast area Tuesday night.Offshore flow shifts to onshore this weekend, with a Moderate to High Rip Risk through the weekend into the coming week./16 &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds around 10 knots this afternoon will shift to 5 to 10 knots later tonight into Saturday morning./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025Moderate to strong northerly winds last into Saturday, then diminish. Direction shifts to easterly Saturday, then southeast to south Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front crossing area waters late Sunday into Sunday night shifts flow to offshore for a short period. A system passes over area waters late Monday into Monday night, bringing moderate to strong variable direction winds before moderate to strong offshore flow returns for Tuesday into mid week after the system passes. /16&&.FIRE WEATHER...Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025Afternoon relative humidity values drop to around 25% on Friday for much of the area, potentially 20-25% over south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. While surface dewpoints begin to increase on Saturday, relative humidity values of 20-25% are anticipated mainly over interior south central Alabama. 20 ft wind speed values are expected to remain below 15 mph both days, and the Significant Fire Potential values will be low or less which will preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch. Out of caution, will continue to message the potential for an elevated fire danger for Friday as it was already in our Key Messages./29/16&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 57 40 65 53 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 57 44 64 58 / 0 0 0 20 Destin 59 44 65 56 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 56 33 63 46 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 54 33 60 46 / 0 0 0 50 Camden 52 33 59 45 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 57 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.&&$$
