MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 11:17 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...464
FXUS64 KMOB 260517
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1117 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
- Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft across portions of the marine area Wednesday night into
Friday morning.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches Wednesday, then a high risk is anticipated this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
A cold front has advanced into the western portion of the area and
will continue through the remainder of the area overnight. Oddly
enough, the frontal boundary is fairly weak at the moment and
patchy fog, dense in some locations, has developed over southeast
Mississippi and portions of southwest Alabama. The fog is expected
to dissipate overnight as cooler and drier air begins to move
into the area in the wake of the front. Dry conditions are
expected for Wednesday through Saturday as a large surface ridge
shifts across the region in the wake of the cold front. A deep
surface low develops over the Plains on Saturday then moves off
across the Great Lakes region and in the process brings a cold
front through the forecast area on Sunday. A series of
shortwaves move across the region Saturday night ahead of the
approaching front, and while it appears that shear values would be
sufficient to warrant concern, instability looks to be sorely
lacking and precluding the potential for strong storms. For
Sunday, shear values are currently indicated to be low, and it's
not clear how much instability will be able to develop over the
area before the front moves through. Will need to monitor at this
point.
Highs on Wednesday generally range from the mid/upper 60s well
inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast. Highs on Thanksgiving
Day range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to the lower 60s
closer to the coast. Highs on Friday will be a bit cooler, then
temperatures moderate through Sunday to highs in the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs trend cooler Monday into Tuesday, with highs on
Tuesday ranging from the mid 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the
coast. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 30s well inland to
the lower 40s at the coast, then lows Thursday night range from
around 30 well inland to near 40 at the coast. Overnight lows
trend by Saturday night to range from the lower 40s well inland to
the mid 50s at the coast, then in the wake of Sunday's cold
front, lows by Monday night dip to around 40 well inland to around
50 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents on Wednesday
will be followed by a low risk through Friday. A high risk of rip
currents is expected for this weekend. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
A broken line of storms near the I-65 corridor will continue moving
east and should be mostly clear of the region by 06-08z. Brief
periods of IFR conditions possible in any stronger storms.
Otherwise, there will be a band of MVFR cigs ahead of the convection
that will clear out once the convective line moves through. VFR
conditions will become predominate after midnight into early
Wednesday morning. Winds will shift out of the north/northwest
across the area as a cold front moves through late tonight. The
front should be east of the area by 12z Wednesday. 34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
A moderate northerly flow develops overnight into Wednesday morning,
then a moderate to strong offshore flow follows for Wednesday night.
The offshore flow diminishes somewhat on Thursday then strengthens
mainly over the open Gulf waters Thursday night. A northeasterly
flow develops on Friday then becomes southeasterly on Saturday. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine area
Wednesday night then tapers to over the 20-60 nm portion for late
Thursday morning through Friday morning. May need to consider
adding the near shore waters to the Small Craft Advisory late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 57 70 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 62 72 43 61 / 40 0 0 0
Destin 64 74 44 63 / 50 10 0 0
Evergreen 55 70 35 60 / 20 0 0 0
Waynesboro 52 65 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 52 64 34 55 / 10 0 0 0
Crestview 59 73 36 61 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 8 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to noon CST Friday for
GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 11:17 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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