MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 11:34 AM CST ...New AVIATION...152
FXUS64 KMOB 221734
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1134 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
- Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible mainly
during Tuesday afternoon along and west of I-65.
- A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the
marine area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
- A Moderate rip current risk exists today for local beaches, and
also for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
A cold front currently approaching from the west moves through the
forecast area mainly this afternoon into the evening hours with
isolated convection accompanying the frontal passage. Dry
conditions are then expected for Sunday into Monday along with a
welcome respite from the nocturnal fog events of late. An upper
low near the Baja area evolves into an upper trof while
progressing into the southern/central Plains through Monday. This
system ejects off across the northeast states Monday night into
Tuesday while a Canadian system leads to a large upper trof
evolving over the central states. The upper trof amplifies while
progressing into the eastern states through Wednesday night, with
an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a strong cold front
through the forecast area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning, with some uncertainty regarding the timing. The system
which ejects off across the northeast states will bring a region
of weakening deep layer lift into the forecast area on Tuesday,
with the 850 mb jet increasing to around 30 knots. MLCAPE values
of 500-1000 J/kg look feasible along and west of I-65 on Tuesday.
The 850 mb jet looks to weaken Tuesday night as the front moves
through, but MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg may be realized
despite the nocturnal timing. For now, will mention that some
strong or possibly storms will be possible in the Key Messages for
Tuesday afternoon along and west of I-65 and continue to monitor.
As the front approaches and moves through, will have high rain
chances shifting across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, then
slight chance to chance pops for Wednesday, then dry conditions
are expected for the remainder of the period.
In the wake of the cold front, lows tonight range from the lower
50s well inland to the lower 60s at the immediate coast. Lows
Sunday night range from the mid/upper 40s well inland to the
mid/upper 50s at the immediate coast. Lows Monday night will be
milder and range from the upper 50s well inland to the mid/upper
60s at the coast. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid/upper 50s
well inland to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. In the wake of the
second cold front, lows Wednesday night range from the mid/upper
30s well inland to the mid 40s at the coast, then Thanksgiving
Night will be cooler and range from the lower/mid 30s inland to
the lower 40s at the coast. Lows Friday night will be similar.
Highs on Sunday will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, then
Monday will range from the mid 70s to around 80 with similar
values for Tuesday. Wednesday's highs will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s along and west of I-65 with mid 70s further to
the east. Thanksgiving Day will be cool and range from the upper
50s well inland to the lower/mid 60s closer to the coast.
Temperatures then moderate a bit through Saturday to range from
the lower 60s well inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. A
moderate risk of rip currents is in effect today, then a low risk
follows for Sunday and Monday. A Moderate risk of rip currents is
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
MVFR ceilings this afternoon will lift VFR levels this evening.
Westerly winds 5-10 knots this afternoon shifts northerly Sunday
morning as a front moves through the area. An isolated shower will
be possible with the frontal passage before midnight. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Light to occasionally moderate southwest to west winds become
northwesterly tonight as a cold front moves through. A
southeasterly flow develops on Monday and becomes southerly on
Tuesday. Winds shift to the northwest on Wednesday as a cold front
moves through with a moderate to strong offshore flow for
Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become
necessary for most of the marine area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 81 57 75 52 / 10 10 0 0
Pensacola 81 62 76 55 / 10 10 0 0
Destin 79 62 76 58 / 10 10 0 0
Evergreen 84 53 77 46 / 10 10 0 0
Waynesboro 82 51 72 46 / 10 0 0 0
Camden 80 51 73 46 / 20 10 0 0
Crestview 83 55 77 47 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 11:34 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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