CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 12:05 AM EST767
FXUS61 KCLE 260505
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1205 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to push northeast into the Great Lakes
region through tonight. A strong cold front will move east across
the local area on Wednesday with surface troughing lingering
through Friday. High pressure briefly builds overhead on
Saturday before another area of low pressure arrives on Sunday
bringing more unsettled weather to the region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The area will see a brief lull in precipitation as the initial push
of rain showers continues to exit to the east this evening. Expect
for some lingering low level cloud cover and drizzle through tonight
as areawide forecast soundings remain saturated at low and mid
levels. By tonight, low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes
region while moving a strong cold front east across the area
through Wednesday. Rain showers return on Wednesday as the front
pushes east across the region before transitioning to a
rain/snow mix Wednesday afternoon and eventually all snow by
Wednesday evening. Primary hazard with areawide change over to
snow will be icy roadways as warm temperatures will rapidly fall
below freezing through the day on Wednesday. Overall
accumulations through Wednesday evening will likely remain at an
inch or less. For clarity all mention of snowfall 00Z Thursday
onward will be discussed in the short term section below.
In addition to synoptic rain/snow across the area with the cold
front, westerly winds and gusts will increase on Wednesday.
Confidence has increased in wind gusts approaching or exceeding
advisory criteria which prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisory
areawide late Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning.
Strongest winds and gusts are expected west of I-71 and along
the lakeshore. The Wind Advisory for Lorain and points east
along the lakeshore will remain in effect through Thursday
night. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and make
driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
High temperatures on Wednesday in the mid 40s to low 50s will
be achieved early Wednesday ahead of the advancing cold front.
Low temperatures drop into the upper 20s behind the front on
Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
In terms of the synoptic picture, the surface low pressure system
will lift northeast away from the Great Lakes region into Quebec on
Thursday and will leave behind lingering surface troughing through
Friday. The short term period will see continued impacts from the
aforementioned low pressure system including gusty winds and
accumulating lake effect snow.
Lake Effect Snow:
Snowfall will transition to lake effect snow Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning as 850mb temperatures fall into the -8 to -10C
range. Mean layer flow will begin as primarily southwesterly to
westerly across Lake Erie which should keep lake effect snow
primarily offshore but may begin impacting extreme northern Erie
County PA. Flow will then turn more westerly to northwesterly by
early Thursday morning as the upper trough axis pushes east which
will allow for lake effect snow to shift inland across the primary
snowbelt. Biggest change to the forecast with this package was the
expansion of a Winter Storm Watch to include Cuyahoga County and
upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for
Erie County PA where confidence is highest. The timing of the
lake effect band shifting south is slightly earlier with this
forecast update with the heaviest snowfall likely occurring
Thursday morning and early afternoon with the initial push
of the lake effect band. Total snowfall accumulations are
expected to exceed 8 inches in the Winter Storm Watch area with
upwards of a foot to 18 inches of snow possible across locations
in inland Erie County PA. Snowfall rates may exceed 1-2 inches
per hour at times in heaviest snow bands. These hazardous
conditions may impact busy Thanksgiving holiday travel. Please
stay tuned to the latest forecast and avoid travel if possible.
If you must travel make sure to have a winter weather kit in
your car.
Gusty winds:
Sustained winds 20-30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph will remain possible
along the lakeshore through the day on Thursday. The aforementioned
Wind Advisory remains in effect along the lakeshore from Lorain and
points east through late Thursday night. Some hi-res guidance is
beginning to hint at 50 knot gusts possible along the eastern
lakeshore Thursday night so will need to monitor trends in case a
brief High Wind Warning may be needed. The gusty winds may lead to
blowing snow which would further impact holiday travel.
Temperatures:
High temperatures in the low to mid 30s both Thursday and Friday
with overnight lows dropping into the low 20s Thursday night and
teens on Friday night. Given the elevated wind speeds, minimum wind
chills will bottom out in the 10s Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather will continue into the long term period. A brief
ridge of high pressure builds over the region on Saturday which will
allow for remaining lake effect snow showers to diminish. Low
pressure system will move through the region Sunday into Monday
bringing another round of rain and snow to the region. Precipitation
should begin as all snow on Sunday before transitioning to all rain
as the region is on the warm side of the low. A mix of rain/snow
returns on Monday and Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region.
High temperatures in the low 30s on Saturday warm into the upper 30s
on Sunday before falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
For this TAF update, was able to better fine tune the location
of the overnight drizzle and resultant IFR/LIFR to NE Ohio and
NW PA mainly affecting KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. Radar shows a band
of light returns persistently moving into these areas. It will
clip KMFD at times, so added a TEMPO there for some drizzle and
IFR. Otherwise, mainly MVFR is expected overnight/early this
morning ahead of the cold front.
The aforementioned strong cold front remains the big focus for
today. The front will cross from west to east from mid morning
through midday. A band of showers along the front will become
more focused as it moves into north central and NE Ohio, so have
a broad 3-4 hour window of VCSH at KTOL and KFDY between 11 and
15Z, with a more defined 2 hour period of prevailing showers at
KMFD, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI later in the morning as the
front sweeps east. Mainly MVFR will continue today with dry
conditions after the late morning/midday line of showers,
however, snow showers will start to move into KCLE and KERI in
the 20-22Z time period and continue into mid evening, possibly
clipping KCAK and KYNG at times with some flurries. This will
not bring a big impact since the lake-effect snow that develops
early Thursday will stay offshore of KERI until after the TAF
period.
Strong cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient will
lead to very gusty winds today into tonight, and this remains
the biggest impact. WSW winds will increase to 15-25 knots early
this morning, increasing to 20-30 knots with gusts up to 40
knots by midday through the afternoon. The strongest winds will
occur in NW Ohio affecting KTOL and KFDY and near the lakeshore
affecting KCLE and KERI. Winds will continue to gust over 30
knots at times tonight.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings persist with scattered snow showers
Thursday. Lake effect snow continues across the snowbelt region
through Friday, and could be heavy at times. Elsewhere,
isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible through
Thursday night. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots will continue into
Wednesday night, with wind gusts up to 40 knots near the Lake
Erie shoreline through Thursday night. Widespread rain and/or
snow expected Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly flow to 10-15 knots becomes southwesterly late tonight. A
deepening low pressure system moves into the northern Great Lakes
region, with a strong cold front quickly moving east across Lake
Erie Wednesday morning. Southwest winds will quickly strengthen to
gale-force on Wednesday, gradually shifting to westerly Wednesday
night and Thursday and then northwest Thursday night. Wind speeds
will largely be 35-40 knots, with strongest winds approaching 45
knots with gusts to 50 knots Wednesday night. Waves as high as 8-12
feet may be possible especially east of The Islands with higher
waves of 16 feet in the open waters. A Gale Warning for all of Lake
Erie Wednesday morning through Friday morning continues to account
for this. These conditions will also cause low water over the
western basin at times through this same time period. The critical
mark for safe navigation is 5 inches below the low water datum, and
latest model projections are likely to bring the water level at
Toledo to several feet below low water datum, with the lowest water
levels expected Wednesday night.
Wind speeds gradually diminish below gale-force winds Thursday night
into Friday morning as winds become northwesterly. Wind speeds
continue to gradually diminish with conditions improving to less
than 15 knots and 4 feet by Saturday morning. Southerly winds
develop on Saturday, strengthening to around 20 knots Saturday
night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for
OHZ003-006>009-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for
OHZ010>012-089.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
evening for OHZ011>014-089.
PA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for
PAZ002-003.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for
PAZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ001-002.
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
evening for PAZ003.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for
LEZ142>144-162>164.
Low Water Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for
LEZ142>144-162>164.
Gale Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Friday for
LEZ145>149-165>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 12:05 AM EST---------------
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