MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 11:34 PM CST ...New AVIATION...509
FXUS64 KMOB 120534
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1134 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1132 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
- Patchy to areas of frost will develop overnight mainly over
interior areas.
- Low humidity values, paired with the ongoing drought, will
lead to elevated fire concerns for today.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
A dry weather pattern prevails over the forecast area through
Saturday as a surface ridge meanders over the area and favors a
light and mostly southerly surface flow over the area. After a
cold start this morning, temperatures steadily moderate going into
the weekend while dry conditions continue. We broke the record
low temperatures at both Mobile and Pensacola last night. Mobile
dropped to 28 and broke the previous record of 31 set in 2011, and
Pensacola dropped to 31 and broke a 99 year old record of 33 set
in 1926. Lows tonight range from the lower/mid 30s well inland to
the lower/mid 40s at the coast, and calm or light winds along with
an open radiative channel is anticipated to allow for patchy to
areas of frost to develop overnight mostly over interior areas. As
we have already issued and verified a Freeze Warning, a Frost
Advisory will not be necessary. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly
70 to 75 then trend to the mid to upper 70s for Friday and
Saturday. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 40s well inland
to the lower/mid 50s at the coast then trend by Saturday night to
range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 at the immediate
coast.
An upper low over the extreme southwest states on Saturday breaks
down to an open wave through Monday while progressing into the
Plains, then likely shears out afterwards across the interior
eastern states. There is uncertainty with how quickly this feature
breaks down however, and there is the potential for an associated
surface low to bring a cold front into the forecast area on
Tuesday. For now, have gone with a dry forecast for Sunday, then
slight chance pops follow for Monday with slight chance to chance
pops for Tuesday. Highs on Sunday through Tuesday will be in the
mid to upper 70s. Lows Sunday night range from the lower 50s well
inland to around 60 at the coast, then lows Monday night range
from the mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the coast. A low
risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1036 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
No impacts are expected through Saturday. A light and variable
flow develops this afternoon then becomes southwesterly tonight.
Light westerly to southwesterly winds on Wednesday become
northwesterly to westerly on Thursday. A light easterly flow on
Friday becomes southeasterly on Saturday. /29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1036 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Relative humidity values drop to around 20 percent over interior
areas this afternoon and 25 to 30 percent closer to the coast.
Winds will remain below critical levels which will preclude the
need for a Red Flag Warning. Afternoon relative humidity values
remain above critical levels on Wednesday and Thursday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 56 41 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 56 46 70 55 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 58 49 69 56 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 58 33 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 56 34 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 55 34 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 57 34 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 11:34 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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