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689 FXUS64 KLIX 011842 CCB AFDLIXArea Forecast Discussion...CORRECTEDNational Weather Service New Orleans LA142 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Clouds increase this evening as the next weather system approaches the area, introducing light rain chances mainly across coastal and SE LA tonight. Little, if any impacts expected. - Another reinforcing shot of cool air filters in Sunday through Tuesday, with chilly morning temps yet again and a few colder areas reaching the upper 30s. - A warming trend builds into the middle to later parts of next week, reaching the low 80s for many areas while staying dry. &&.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025A mid/upper closed low over eastern Iowa with a shortwave trough axis extending from it southwestward into Northeast TX will continue to translate southeastward overnight. The main vort max of this trough axis is anchored on the southern end and isexpected to pass to our west and south overnight into Sunday. Thenet result will be the main dynamical forcing will remain to our west and south as well. The river parishes will be on the periphery of this forcing and with modest moisture advection in the mid levels, there will be a low potential for light rain or sprinkles from the late evening to early morning hours. Willlikely see virga and/or sprinkles given the very dry airmass below 700 mb. Given the negligent return flow setup, the airmass will remain fairly stable for almost the entire area except the waters where there will be marginal instability.The progressive nature of this shortwave will mean a rapid cloudincrease this evening will be followed by a rapid cloud decreaseduring the morning hours on Sunday. Given the overall increase incloud cover for most of tonight, the overnight lows will not be as cold as the past few nights and will be much closer to normal early November levels. Despite sunny skies on Sunday, highs will be cooler as CAA strengthens on the backside of this closed low and shortwave trough. This CAA along with diminishing northerly flow will result in a very chilly Sunday night/Monday morning. Upper 30s to around 40 degrees will be quite common across the Florida parishes and southern MS with widespread 40s elsewhere.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday night)Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025A cool airmass will persist through Tuesday morning as a 1027 mbsurface ridge builds southward into the CWA. Tuesday morning weshould again see some upper 30s in the colder drainage areasalbeit not quite as chilly as Monday morning. A moderating trend in temperatures is expected from Tuesday onward as high pressure at all levels builds into the CWA. More moderating southeast to south flow at the surface by Thursday will further aid in the warming trend. NBM deterministic highs are showing a bit "cooler" highs mainly in the upper 70s to around 80 for Thursday and Friday but the NBM 75th percentile highs indicate temperatures more in the 81-83 range. By Saturday, widespread highs in the 80s look tobe likely given the established return flow setup (albeit weak) by this time period. Along with the increasing return flow, there will be an increase in cloud cover and an increasing potential forfog given the lengthening nights and increasing surface dewpoints. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours despite anapproaching upper disturbance tonight. May see cloud decks getdown to around 8k FT but low clouds will be quite limited given the dry airmass in place with no appreciable means to moisten thelow levels. Will maintain a PROB30 -SHRA for KHUM given the better proximity to the forcing from the disturbance. Clouds will quickly clear out during the 08-12Z period on Sunday as the disturbance quickly exits south and east of the area.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025The aforementioned shortwave will move through the coastal waterstonight. An increasing chance for showers along with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms will occur, especially across the offshore waters during the late evening to Sunday morning timeframe. Winds will increase in response to this disturbance andmay approach caution criteria by early Sunday morning mainly across the offshore waters. The more pronounced gradient increase will occur during the day on Sunday with SCA conditions expected by 01-03Z Monday, especially across the offshore waters and the MSSound. Winds and seas will remain elevated through Monday as highpressure continues to build into the waters along with persistentCAA. Winds and seas will then begin to subside by Monday night into Tuesday as the center of high pressure approaches the coastal waters. Return flow is expected to begin by Thursday or Friday as high pressure slowly shifts eastward. Dry conditions will prevailnext week with perhaps a few light streamer showers possible by Saturday. For now, will keep "silent" POPs even for the end of the period.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 44 64 37 65 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 47 68 39 68 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 47 71 39 68 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 56 72 49 68 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 50 71 44 68 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 45 71 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...MBLONG TERM....MBAVIATION...MBMARINE...MB
