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287 FXUS64 KLIX 010910AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA410 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024It has been another rough night across the region with temperaturesstill in the upper 70s to mid 80s at 7z. Likely see temps drop another degree or two but with most of the area starting the day out around 80 once again it will take no time to heat up with heatindex values quickly climbing into the 100s later this morning. In awful news at in the area Lakefront Airport (NEW) at 8z had a heat index of 108 and was sitting at 88/82. In other news TD3 become Tropical Storm Chris yesterday evening and has already made landfall over Mexico. No impacts from this system for our area. Hurricane Beryl continues to the WNW and due to an Eyewall Replacement cycle has seen some fluctuations overnight. Forecast still brings it through the Caribbean and towards the Yucatan Thursday night/Friday morning. Still looks like any direct impacts from Beryl are unlikely however there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the forecast after Friday. With that it is important to stay up-to-date with the forecast throughout the week.Now to focus on the more immediate problem "THE HEAT". It is hot out there; it is hot right now and the sun isn't up yet. Today could be the worst day of this current heat wave as the heat index could approach 120 in a few locations. But why will today be worse than yesterday and tomorrow? First the mid lvl ridge will continue to build east with the center of the ridge possibly over the ARKLATEX region by afternoon. This will increase the subsidence over the area along with being accompanied by warming LL temps. H925 temps look to be around 27-29C while h85 temps will be around 20-22C. This would easily equate to highs in the 94 to 99 range. Typically there would be another 1-2 degree F for the superadiabatic skin layer but given just how humid the region is this probably won't be the case. However, there is another possibility that could lead to warmer temps and that will be northerly winds which can provide weak down sloping effects mainly over coastal MS. These northerly winds come behind a weak sfc trough/backdoor "cold" front which has already moved through but the drier air lags far back to the north and may finally infiltrate the area tonight. So with no drop in the LL moisture, warmer LL temps, and even possible downslope impacts the last possible silver bullet to help keep the heat in check somewhat would be convection. Yeah that isn't looking great either today, at least for the northern half of the CWA. Again this is partially due to the boundary moving through providing northerly winds. during the day today the LL winds will be out of the north with h85 winds possibly as high as 15kts. This will drastically hinder any northward progress of the seabreeze however it would enhance the lake breeze headings south across the NO metro. It is that area around I-10 and to the south that has the best potential for afternoon storms. The other negative for convection besides the subsidence and warm mid lvl temps, above the LL we actually dry out some with PWs possibly dropping below 2" for the northern/northeastern third of the CWA. With this we continued the heat advisories and warnings for today and expanded the warning to include the rest of the FL parishes and Pearl River County. Still may need to update later this morning if it looks like there is a good chance that southwest MS getting into the dangerous heat conditions. Tomorrow overall would be a carbon copy or worse depending on how you looks at things. The center of the ridge is even closer to being directly overhead, LL temps are possibly 1-2 degrees warmer, and mid lvl temps are warmer with h5 temps around -2 again. This all suggest HOT and mostly rain free there is just one other aspect that is needed for heat and that is the humidity. Not lets not kid ourselves it will still be humid, it is southern LA and MS in the Summer humidity is baked in but with respect to what we will see today and the past few days it looks like we could be a little drier. The drier LL air finally trickles down into the area overnight tonight and PWs continue to fall with some indication that PWs could be under 1.75" across the northern half/third. Actual air temps still look to range from the mid 90s to near 100 and many places could be a degree or two higher tomorrow with respect to the max temp but the heat index values are a little more in question. Convection should be harder to come by but still can't rule out some storms late in the afternoon. As for heat don't get optimistic thinking it will be a dry heat it will still be oppressive but depending on how much dry air can working into the area in the LL will dictate whether we see heat index values in the 105-112 range for most of the area or if we see the dangerous heat conditions in place with heat index readings at and above 113. Because of the uncertainty we issued an Excessive Heat Watch for all the areas that are currently under the warning and a heat advisory for all areas that currently have the advisory in place. This will allow us to downgrade some or all of the watch area to an advisory if it looks like the humidity will be significantly lower. /CAB/&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024Overall wish we had better news but models continue to be in rather decent agreement advertising the heat will continue throughthe 4th of July but at least we may get out of the very oppressive conditions Wednesday through Friday. The other thing tokeep an eye on was mentioned earlier and that is Hurricane Beryl.NBM looked good for the most part and not major deviations were made from it. Wednesday and through the rest of the week and into the weekend the ridge will continue to build over the area and to the east dominating the region through the work week. The ridge appears to flatten out some but is still centered over or near the area. This would likely allow for weak to possibly modest easterly flow that could bring a big increase in rain chances but that is still highly uncertain. The ridge does weaken some and this would likely lead to minimal drops in the temps both in the mid lvls and the LL and that along with slightly better rain chances should keep highs in the lower to mid 90s. There is still the risk of heat headlines through the week but at this point it would only be heat advisory conditions and over the more typical humid locations. As for Beryl, again the NHC official forecast brings Beryl over the Yucatan overnight Thursday and into the Bay of Campeche/southwest GOM Friday. After that a lot will depend on how strong or how much is left of Beryl and how strong the ridge is over the area and whether there is some erosion on the western periphery of the ridge. Right there is still too much uncertainty whether Beryl would just continue chugging along to the WNW into Mexico or start to take a turn to the NW/NNW. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024VFR conditions persist across the area and unless convectionimpacts any this afternoon there should be no other impacts through the day and evening. Greatest potential for impacts from convection should be HUM/MSY/NEW. Obviously with any storm reducedvsbys and lower cigs should be expected. If convection fires today it would likely hold off till after 20z. /CAB/&&.MARINE...Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024Weather across the coastal waters will remain generally benignoutside of convection. However, the chance of showers and stormswill be fairly high through at least mid week and mainly over theovernight hours. While higher winds and seas will accompany any storms, winds otherwise should generally be no higher than 10-15 knots with seas/waves mostly 2 ft or less. /CAB/&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 95 73 97 76 / 20 10 30 0 BTR 99 79 100 80 / 50 20 40 10 ASD 97 78 97 78 / 40 10 50 20 MSY 96 81 95 81 / 60 20 60 20 GPT 96 78 93 79 / 30 10 50 30 PQL 99 77 96 78 / 30 20 50 30 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071- 076>090. Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071- 076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ066>070. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ066>070.GM...None.MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068-077-083>088. Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for MSZ068-077-083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ069>071. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ069>071.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...CABMARINE...CAB
