MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:39 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...225
FXUS64 KMOB 071939
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
139 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
- A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through this evening, mainly over interior portions
of southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi.
- A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of
the marine area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the
potential for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf
waters.
- The first freeze of the season is likely for most of the
forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
into the mid 20's to lower 30's.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
We are now at the warmest part of our adventure this weekend and
with that comes the potential for an isolated strong to severe
storms this afternoon. Once we get through the storms today it'll
be all down hill from here as we plunge into winter and
temperatures crater to likely daily record lows on Monday and
Tuesday.
Synopsis....The first upper shortwave to move through the area has
arrived on our doorstep as satellite observations shows this
trough moving across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Isolated to
scattered storms have initiated mainly west of I-65 on the nose
of increase low level warm advection. These showers should
continue to slightly increase in coverage this afternoon as the
best upper forcing (albeit weak) will move over the area. This
will be especially true for areas mainly along highway 84 as a
subtle marine boundary that has made it just north of I-10 will
continue to lift slowly north across the area by late afternoon.
Storms will likely be focused along the highway 84 corridor during
the late afternoon and early evening when instability is
maximized and forcing moves across the area.
Shortwave ridging will build into the area tonight into Saturday
which may lead to another night of fog across the area. As winds
relax, steady moisture advection overnight may lead to patchy to
areas of fog and low ceilings. However given low level winds at
925 mb will remain around 15 knots or so, confidence in dense fog
is low and thus no advisory. We will allow subsequent shifts to
monitor observations for the potential of dense fog.
The next wave will move through late Saturday night into Sunday
bringing another round of showers and storms mainly as the surface
cold front sweeps across the area. Convective coverage will
likely remain isolated as upper forcing will be removed and dry
air will quickly move into the area during the afternoon.
Deep northwesterly flow will setup behind the rather anomalous
upper trough on Sunday night into Monday opening up the gates to
the arctic. High pressure over the desert southwest and a deep
upper low over the ohio Valley will support a steady stream of
dry continental polar air to make it well into the Gulf ushering
in the first real taste of winter. Luckily the bitter cold
temperatures will only last a day or two as we steadily heat up
with more west-northwesterly winds aloft by the end of the week.
Severe Weather...Current observations verify that the overall
forecast remains on track for this afternoons round of strong to
severe storms. While this event is not rather enthusing and
overall storm coverage and severe storms will be rather limited
and isolated IF it even happens at all. However, IF and a big IF a
stronger storm were to develop there is enough here to warrant
concerns for a brief tornado or two. Storms have already started
to percolate across the area; however, the greatest risk probably
doesn't arrive until later in the afternoon closer to 4pm across
our interior areas and likely lasting to around 9 pm east of I-65. Recent
high resolution guidance continues to suggested isolated to
widely scattered storms develop along the lifting marine
boundary. This marine boundary is marked by dewpoints climbing
into the 70s and theta-e values in and around 340K. Lapse rates
will be rather paltry as height falls and warm mid level temps
will keep instability profiles tall and skinny despite having
around 1000 J/KG. This really isn't a setup for explosive
thunderstorm development and this has been noted in this
afternoons radar trends showing storms being shallow in nature
with little to no lightning thus far. This slow burn and weak
overall forcing will likely be the main limiting factor to storms
as the environment really isn't primed for deep storm development.
However, this is Mobile and there's always a fly in the ointment.
Along that lifting boundary, which will likely make it to around
highway 84 by this afternoon, hodographs will be short but highly
curved with storm relative inflows in and around 20 knots. With
0-1 KM SRH around 100 to 150 m2/s2 of mostly streamwise SRH, we
bring bag an environment rich for mini supercells/mini-spinnies.
un-surprisingly we already have seen some small transient
supercellular structures out of the current convection. Given the
thermodynamic environment, storms will likely remain small early
on in the event and take time to cluster up and mature but as they
do they might be able to take full advantage of the environment
which would be supportive of a tornado and or a damaging wind gust
or two. This is a relatively low end threat but if all the pieces
come together along the boundary then we would not be shocked to
a brief tornado occur.
Cold Temperatures... As mentioned earlier a shallow arctic airmass
is expected to blast into the area Sunday night as temperatures
plummet into the low 30s inland and upper 30s at the coast and
that will only be the start. With steady cold advection through
the day on Monday and winds relaxing some Monday night into
Tuesday morning, temperatures are looking to drop into near record
daily values and roughly 20 degrees below normal. Spread on
guidance is relatively small with only a 3 degree spread between
the 25th (lowest reasonable temperatures) and the 75th (highest
reasonable lows) with the 25th in the low to mid 20s and the
higher in the upper 20s to low 30s. This means that guidance
remains fairly confident for 4 days out on the temperature
forecast. NBM probabilities of less than 30 degrees is greater
than 50% even to near I-10 corridor and 20-30% nearing the
coastline south of I-10. Our record lows for November 11th are 31
at Mobile and 33 for Pensacola. Safe to say that all signs are
pointing to setting new daily low temperatures with widespread
freeze products. On top of that, windchills mainly south and east
of I-65 where winds may stay a little high could drop into the
mid to low 20s which would be flirting with our cold weather
advisory products. Given the confidence in this forecast and the
rather abrupt drop from fall, sensitive agriculture/plants and
vulnerable communities with improper heating measures will
certainly be at threat.
Fire Weather...Given our longstanding drought conditions across
the area and a rather dry frontal passage Sunday night into Monday
we do have some growing concerns for dangerous burning conditions
across interior Alabama and Mississippi. Winds increasing to 15
to 20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph during the day on Monday
coupled with relative humidity values in the 20s will likely
result in rather dangerous fire conditions and a red flag warning
may be warranted given the dry fuels across the area. Winds should
subside on Tuesday; however, continued dry conditions could
remain across the area leading to increased fire danger. BB-8
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
VFR conditions with occasional MVFR ceilings will prevail through
the afternoon. Showers will continue to develop throughout this
afternoon and into the evening, especially inland. Ceilings will
gradually lower, especially near Mobile Bay, through the evening
hours, with IFR to LIFR ceilings expected at KMOB and KBFM in the
late evening and overnight hours. Brief restrictions in visibility
are possible, especially at KBFM overnight. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
Light southerly flow today becomes a westerly to southwesterly flow
on Saturday. A moderate to strong northwesterly flow develops Sunday
in the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed in the wake of the cold front for all marine waters Sunday
afternoon through Monday night. Gusts to gale force are possible
over the open Gulf waters Sunday night into Monday morning and
considerations for a Gale Watch for the offshore waters may be
needed later this weekend. Winds should subside on Tuesday and
quickly turn onshore by the beginning of next week as a surface
high moves east of the area. BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 62 80 62 73 / 10 0 20 10
Pensacola 67 78 66 76 / 30 0 20 10
Destin 67 78 67 77 / 40 10 20 10
Evergreen 61 81 59 72 / 30 10 30 10
Waynesboro 60 79 57 67 / 10 10 30 10
Camden 61 78 57 68 / 30 10 30 10
Crestview 62 81 60 76 / 30 10 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:39 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
