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733 FXUS64 KLIX 302042AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA342 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions continue to improve through this evening. - The next weather system is expected across the area late Saturday into Sunday but confidence in any major impacts is very low. &&.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025Another fabulous fall day across the deep south. Only realnegative was the cold weather cu and some stratus over far easterncoastal MS. Otherwise, temps climbed into the 60s before 18z undersunny to mostly sunny skies. Drier air continues to slide into thearea and even some slight CAA continues to occur below h85. The next 36 hours will be quite cool and dry. Main forecastquestion is temps especially how much do we cool off tonight andtomorrow night. Conditions will be quite favorable for a decentradiational cooling night both nights but may not quite be optimalfor either night. That said the NBM deterministic numbers appearto be pulled too much towards climo as these are a few degrees above the 90th percentile and 3-6 degrees above the mean. Thatsaid it appears even worse looking at Monday and Tuesday nextweek (but we will get to that later). As for tonight High pressure is still going to be sliding in andeven by sunrise is still centered to the northwest over thesouthern Plains. This likely is what is at least leading to the slight CAA in the LL just below h85 but the placement of the sfc high generally isn't the best location to really see temps bottom out. That said dewpoints have been falling and at 19z were mostly in the lower to mid 40s, coastal MS still had some upper 40s but these dewpoints will continue to slide overnight. In addition winds have already been slacking off considerably and will continue to do so through the night. Sfc winds will decouple and we should either be light and vrb or calm overnight over much of the land areas and even winds at h95 look to drop below 10kt before 5z. Given much of the area is already starting off in the mid 60s it will be easy to see a 20-25 degree drop overnight. The main issue with the sfc high is that it doesn't promote the cold air drainage that we see in nights where the sfc high is directly on top of us for centered to the northeast. That said we are still forecasting lows to mainly range from the lower 40s to near50 and in the typical cold spots like the Pearl and Pascagoula river drainage areas we have dropped another degree or two and there is a chance that we see our first upper 30s of the season. That said even if anyone tests that and touches 39 frost is not a concern tonight. Tomorrow for Halloween may be the nicest Halloween since 2009. Infact there has only been 3 Halloweens in our area over theprevious 24 years to see highs struggle to get above 70. However,2023 was actually one of the coldest Halloweens in the last 100 years in our area and temps only climbed into the upper 50s to mid60s with rain around that day but skies will be clear, winds willbe light, and conditions will be dry and cool to cold by the end of Trick or Treating. Highs tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer since the CAA will be done. We shouldn't mix out to h85 solooking at h925 temps, models are generally advertising 10-12C and this would translate to mid 60s to near 70. With highs still about 7-10 degrees below normal this will set the stage for another chilly fall night. Your Trick-Or-Treat fcst calls for clear skies, light winds and likely calm in most areas with tempsin the lower to mid 60s for most of the area at the beginning of your quest for candy. If you are one of the older and lucky ghoulsat there still in search of the full candy bars and not those wimpy snack size around 2/3z the temps will range from possibly the upper 40s for our cold sites to mid 50s elsewhere. After thattemps will continue to fall through the night with almost prime radiational cooling conditions. The sfc high quickly slides from on top of us to the AL/GA/TN area by sunrise. One possible concernto watch is if the sfc high is a little faster along with our system coming later this weekend. If things are faster than we could begin to see WAA in the LL and that will hurt the last few hours of cooling. With that lows will likely still generally be inthe 40s but can't rule out another isolated location or two touching 39. /CAB/.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday night)Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025Even though the medium range models have come into much better agreement with this weekends system and heading into next weekthey continue to change and have trended faster and farther eastagain. This is really hinting now at a small window of impacts andeven those impacts are on the lower end with mainly just some rainand possibly only the southern half of the area seeing any realaccumulations. Overall confidence is increasing in a mostly dryand cool fcst with the only rain potential Saturday afternoonand into the early Sunday morning hours. Outside of that the fcstis mainly a temp concern and it still appears the the NBM is verymuch on the warm end with its deterministic fcst on Monday andTuesday well above the 90th percentile and is actually the highmember for many locations. With that there has been some rathernoticeable changes to the morning low fcst for Monday and Tuesdayusing a 35/65 blend of the NBM/NBM 50 and then dropping our riverdrainage areas down a few degrees including the west bank. Main driver is the system in south-central Canada currently pushing a cold front through the Upper MS Valley and into the Central Plains. This system will dive southeast into MN overnight tonight and tomorrow before a s/w diving due south out of central Canada comes into the back side of it amplifying the L/W trough Friday night and early Saturday. The problem is that this occurs over the central CONUS and MS Valley. As the L/W trough digs and amplifies we are still very dry. The sfc and LL don't respond fastenough and a weak inverted trough begins to set up across the northwestern/north-central Gulf late Saturday afternoon/evening and quickly starts to shift east as the trough digs. This should develop showers just off to our west during the afternoon and thatwill move east and southeast through the night but it will quickly move east. By sunrise the trough will continue to dig and slide east and the axis will be either directly over the area or possibly moving east out of the region. The models now show the trough continuing to dig into the eastern Gulf on Sunday and not over our area like they were a few days ago. As this happens we will quickly dry out and may be rain free late Sunday morning. Given the lack of recovery, the little to no response in the LLfield across our area, lack of instability most of the area willonly see showers with the heaviest rain likely south of the 10/12corridor. Any thunderstorms will probably be confined to the coastif not outright just over the water. After this though we see another shot of colder and drier air.Everything is rather progressive with the sfc high building backin over the area Sunday night and it will dominate the areathrough Monday night. This will set us up for 2 rather favorableradiational cooling nights with morning lows possibly testing the upper 30s in isolated locations both mornings. We will startto moderate Tuesday as a flat ridge slides east into the Gulf butwe will remain dry and likely near normal to slightly below normaltemperature wise. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025No weather issues for the aviation community in our area. Windshave been slacking off and no concern of LLWS. skies are clear orclearing, and with very drier air in place no concern of fog. VFRconditions expected through tomorrow night. /CAB/&&.MARINE...Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025Winds have been slacking off all morning as high pressure starts to build into the area and all flags/headlines should disappear this evening. Only change to the headlines was to add SCS headlines for the late afternoon and early evening hours. Conditions become calm late-week, but the next system approaches waters this weekend. Confidence is still low as this forecast has been changing over the last few days but it looks like impacts with this system will be far lower than with our last. Confidence will grow as we get closer and guidance aligns with time.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 40 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 43 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 39 69 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 52 70 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 44 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 39 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ572-575- 577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...CABMARINE...CAB
