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842 FXUS64 KLIX 300450AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1110 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Cool, breezy conditions again today with no rain chances through the rest of the week. - Hazardous marine conditions to continue early today, but conditions are expected to improve later tonight into Friday. - The next weather system is expected across the area late Saturday into Sunday but for now introduces low confidence in regards to rain coverage/extent. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025No question about it, it's fall out there! We recently got a niceshot of fall weather following a recent cold front across thearea, bringing breezy and dry conditions back to the area. Fortoday, winds will start out generally light but still strongestacross north-facing shorelines like the Southshore. May see a fewlow-level stratocu or stratocu streets but generally speaking should see way more sun than clouds. CAA following the recent frontal passage relaxes some, as does the low-level winds but we'll once again see a well-mixed PBL following sfc heating. Did target dewpoints from 17-01Z lower towards the 10th percentile to account for strong afternoon mixing, and did the same for Friday. Otherwise, other few small edits were on drainage locations (PearlRiver and Pascagoula drainage basins) lowering MinT's some to account for radiational cooling taking over thanks to the surface high settling in closer and relaxing winds. Overall, a pleasant way to end the week! KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday night)Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025As we enter the long-term, that's where we start to see our nextchallenger appear. Starting off with the upper-air pattern, themain story will be a lingering piece of energy from a closedupper-low over the northern US/northern Midwest sliding south tiedto attendant energy over New England. How this will "slingshot"south has to do with alot of complicated dynamics at play buteventually amplifies and cuts off as broader scale ridging takesover the continental US. This is a challenging scenario, as long-range guidance handle how this upper-low slingshots south differently, introducing indiscrepancy from what eventually attempts to form downstream in the divergent SW portion of eithera broad postitive-tilt trough (weaker scenario) or deeper/stronger upper-level low that ramps up downstream divergence to develop a weak NW gulf low and coupled with greater mass lift/divergence, isentropic ascent and surface low genesis would support amplified moisture return and increase rain chances.So the scenario's are laid out, but what's most likely? Well, guidance is spread largely from recent GFS runs (up to 18Z as I type this) bring a quick- hitting heavy rain event overnight Saturday night into Sunday to absolutely dry from the CMC and earlier ECMWF trends. Forecaster intuition/experience along with closely taking a look at ensemble cluster analysis (which is not very helpful given wide range of trough amplification scenarios and where ensembles typically water it down some) says that it's hard to think we won't atleast see some coastal or marine showers even in the less-amplified solution. Perhaps an evaporational cooling/wetbulbilg situation where isentropic ascent drives over cooler/drier surface conditions and moistens down. So generally speaking, personally leaning towards a wetter solution than what the latest 01Z NBM proposed, which, trends from the 13Z yesterday has gone down from 20-30% to moreso 10-15% thanks to the CMC/ECMWFbias (driest solution at the time). Just not overly confident enough to bump it up yet so we'll see with time. Regardless, impacts look to be relatively limited to just a period of showers and maybe some marine thunderstorms. Will see how this progressesand adjust with time if needed. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025On satellite early this morning, a few areas of low clouds havebuilt into the region from the north, which could breiflyintroduce periodic MVFR conditions through daybreak beforeconditions improve after sunset. Main focus will be on continued strong to occasionally gusty winds for along/near northward- facing shoreline TAF locations including MSY and NEW where wind gusts could remain closer to 20-25kts at times bearing generally 290-310. Winds become breezy for all TAF sites mainly late morningthrough late afternoon/evening, but will diminish after sunset. KLG&&.MARINE...Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025Gusty offshore winds will persist tonight, ranging around 25-30kts for nearshore waters to a few occasional gusts to Gale for Gulf waters thru early Thursday morning. Only changes to headlines tonight was trimming the Gale Warning to drop off earlier at 4AM turning to Small Craft Advisory for all waters, also went ahead and removed the Gale Warning for nearshore/coastal lakes/sounds to a Small Craft Advisory. Extended the Small Craft Advisory for 20-60nm zones SE of the MS delta to account for lingering 6-8ft waves but winds will taper going into later today and tonight with time. Conditions become calm late-week, but the next system approaches waters this weekend. For now, confidence is low in the potential impacts from a quick-moving system including strong winds, waves or showers/storms, but will reassess as we get closer and guidance aligns with time. KLG&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 47 63 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 47 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 45 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 53 69 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 50 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 46 68 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534. Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ536- 538-550-552-555-557-570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ572- 575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534. Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557- 570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ538- 550-552-555-557-570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ575- 577.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
