ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:02 PM EST249
FXUS61 KILN 041702
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1202 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will bring dry and mild conditions through mid
week. Rain is expected on Friday ahead of a cold front. A much
cooler airmass will settle into the region over the weekend and into
early next week bringing the first chances for some snow flakes late
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The Ohio Valley remains on the northwestern periphery of a surface
high to the southeast this afternoon into tonight. Fair weather
skies and dry conditions persist during this timeframe. A low moving
into the Great Lakes tonight strengthens the pressure gradient over
the region which will allow southwesterly winds to remain elevated
tonight. Forecast lows only drop into the middle to upper 40s for
most locations due to the winds remaining elevated. Gusts upwards of
20 mph are possible by sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low moves across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will
bring a cold front through the Ohio Valley late in the afternoon
into the evening hours. Breezy westerly/southwesterly conditions are
expected with gusts upwards of 30 mph ahead of the front when mixing
peaks Wednesday afternoon. Forecast highs spike into the middle to
upper 60s under a mix of sun and clouds.
Winds quickly shift to the northwest Wednesday evening/night behind
the dry cold front before slowly weakening through the night.
Temperatures drop into the 30s overnight on moderate CAA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in and moves across the Ohio Valley on
Thursday. Cool, calm, and sunny conditions with highs in the 50s are
expected under the surface high. Surface high pressure quickly moves
southeast of the region by Thursday night ahead of the next low
moving into the Great Lakes. Southerly winds increase through the
night which should limit lows from dropping much below 40.
On Friday, a surface low moves across the Great Lakes and a cold
front associated with the low progresses through the region Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Rain is likely to occur ahead of the
front. There is a slight chance for some thunder as some weak
instability is forecast to develop in the warm sector ahead of the
front. Rain chances subside late Friday night after FROPA.
The next surface low quickly develops over the region on Saturday
evening ahead of another shortwave trough ejecting out of the
Plains. A cold front accompanies this deepening low. A chance for
rain exists ahead of the front before transitioning over to include
some rain/snow chances behind the front as colder air surges in from
the northwest. Sunday evening into Sunday night may feature the
first flakes for the season at some locations. High pressure builds
into the area to start the work week bringing much colder conditions
to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with on some VFR
ceilings occurring.
Southerly winds around 10 knots persist through 0000z Wednesday.
Wind gusts are then expected to increase to around 20 knots by 1200z
Wednesday. Winds begin to veer to the southwest on Wednesday after
sunrise and continue to increase with gusts of 30 knots possible by
1800z Wednesday. A period of LLWS is expected tonight between 0600-
1200z.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:02 PM EST---------------
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