IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 3:18 AM EST683
FXUS63 KIND 040818
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with above normal temperatures through Friday
- Widespread rain showers expected Friday, especially south/east
- Noticeably cooler starting Sunday...chances for light precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday night
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
Much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is within strong quasi-zonal
flow through the short term. That said, strong jet dynamics will
allow for kinks in the low level flow leading to slight differences
across the state and the passage of broken cloud cover aloft.
Warm air advection has allowed for surface pressure to quickly build
over the Tennessee Valley, with strong high pressure just to the
south of Indiana throughout the day. However, weak shortwave
passages to the north within the stronger flow allows will put
central Indiana still on the threshold between these features,
leading to greater PGF later today through tonight. An increase in
cloud cover will limit mixing some, but winds are still expected to
be breezy with sustained winds out of the SSW at 10-15mph this
afternoon through the overnight hours. As the wave nears, a greater
LLJ is likely to form in the evening leading to occasional gusts
across northern portions of the area to 30 MPH. Temperatures are
expected to be above seasonal today and especially tonight without
strong decoupling. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s with overnight
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Ahead of the aforementioned shortwave, moderate dry air advection and
greater mixing near the LLJ could allow for brief periods this
afternoon and evening of RH values below 25 percent in combination
with winds greater than 20mph. Due to the lack of alignment between
higher gusts and lowest RH values, fire hazards are not expected to
be high, but there still will be brief periods of elevated risk for
quick fire spread later today.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
Wednesday through Saturday...
The synoptic pattern through the long term will trend from a more
zonal flow into late this week, to an early-winter type deep trough
for November's second week. Several weather systems will track
eastward through the period. First, a seasonably strong surface low
crossing the Great Lakes Wednesday will drag its moisture-starved
and rain-free cold frontal passage across the region through the
afternoon...with corresponding southwest breezes bringing an
unseasonably warm day nearing 70F. Second, a more northern-tracking
low deepening into eastern Ontario Friday...should advance slowly
enough to allow SSW surface flow to return dewpoints to 55-60F and
hopefully produce widespread showers, especially over the CWA's
southeastern half. Isolated thunder is also possible Friday...and
while ample wind shear is expected, appears any non-zero instability
may not be enough to produce any organized stronger storms.
Sunday and Monday...
A third weather system will assist the overall pattern's transition
to noticeably colder conditions for early next week. An upper
vortex spinning near James Bay will combine with an amplifying ridge
over western North America to direct Arctic air down the High Plains
this weekend...with the resultant broad/deep upper trough lowering
1000-500 mb thicknesses below 528 dm / and H850 temperatures to
negative 6 degrees Celsius over the local region by the end of the
weekend. Surface low pressure riding the wave ahead of the plunging
air mass will deepen, and likely track east across the Midwest.
Lower confidence surrounds anafrontal precipitation amounts and
type, yet at least the potential exists for rain changing to wet
snow showers (onto a warm ground) around the Sunday timeframe.
Further low certainty for any subsequent lake effect snow showers
possibly reaching far northern zones into the Monday timeframe,
although at least clouds and a few flurries will likely reach far
northern counties.
High temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s Thursday-Saturday will
trend downward to mainly 40s early next week. Lows will be often
within 35-45F through Saturday night...before widespread 20s to
start next week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
High pressure will promote VFR conditions through the period. Some
high clouds are expected late tonight into Tuesday, but all of that
will remain high VFR. Expect light or potentially even calm winds
tonight. These winds then pick up on Tuesday and back from westerly
to southerly during the day. Winds should veer back towards SW/WSW
Tuesday night
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 3:18 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
