PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 12:15 PM EDT332
FXUS61 KPBZ 311615
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1215 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds today will be replaced by a dry and seasonable
weekend, save shower chances north of I-80. Slightly higher
rain chances Monday favor the I-80 corridor, though temperatures
remain mostly seasonable for the whole period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty winds this afternoon (30mph to 40mph max for most).
- Chances of showers north of I-80; dry and seasonable
elsewhere.
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure has began to readily build behind the departing
low pressure, creating a tight pressure gradient. With daytime
mixing, thermodynamic profiles have tended adiabatic for the
afternoon, invoking the mixing from aloft to the surface. Cold
wrap around flow has kept temperatures slightly below normal. With
most models mixing to around 850mb in 35kts to 40kts of flow,
most should expect to see wind gusts >30mph today (HREF prob
>50%), particularly in western PA and the ridges of WV. The only
place expected to exceed advisory criteria is eastern Tucker
County (which has already reported gusts of 50mph to 55mph
throughout the morning (hence the Wind Advisory remains in
effect through 5pm). All gusts are expected to gradually subside
overnight, not because of stabilization and decoupling, but
rather the slackening of the pressure gradient and surface high
pressure encroachment by daybreak. HREF supports a few rogue
gusts up to 30mph through 3am.
Most of the area is expected to continue to remain dry today but
an isolated shower could not be ruled out north of I-80 in
convective cumulus and more low-moistue. Cooling temperature
overnight and a larger lake-land thermal contrast may lend to
slightly increased shower chances overnight north of I-80.
Through tomorrow, much of the area will be under high pressure
and subsidence, though continued WNW flow means an isolated
brief shower, again, could not be ruled out north of I-80.
Elsewhere, a broken to scattered fair weather cumulus deck is
expected with moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion.
Temperatures tonight and Saturday will remain near-seasonal
normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lake-effect showers continue along and north of I-80 Saturday
and Saturday night, tapering off Sunday
- Off chance at some light rain for areas generally south of
Pittsburgh Saturday night into Sunday
----------------------------------------------------------------
Broad surface high pressure will persist over the eastern CONUS
through Sunday and should help keep the area mostly dry. There
remains some question about the evolution of a mid-level trough
digging across the Upper Mississippi late Saturday into Sunday.
Two general clusters of solutions exist: the first closing off
a 500mb low and digging deep into the Southeast by Monday
morning. The second keeps the feature more as a progressive open
wave, crossing the lower Ohio Valley and central Appalachians
just to our south late Sunday. Both of these solutions keep
the best precipitation chances south of the area, but the latter
solution would allow some light rainfall to spread across mainly
the southern half of the area (generally south of Pittsburgh)
Saturday night and Sunday. Even if that does occur, additional
rainfall would be measured in the hundredths, with ensemble
means all remaining below a tenth of an inch.
Temperatures remain near-normal through the weekend, with highs
in the low/mid 50s, and lows in the mid/low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
- Periodic chances of light precipitation, especially north of
Pittsburgh
- Generally seasonable temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range ensembles favor quasi-zonal upper flow over the Upper
Ohio Valley through midweek as the upper ridge over the south-
central CONUS flattens and shifts over the Gulf coast. There
are two distinct shortwave troughs embedded within this flow
that may bring precipitation chances to the local area. The
first wave passes by to our north on Monday, with the bulk of
precipitation in that wave remaining over southern Ontario and
western New York, though some light showers appear possible as
far south as Pittsburgh (though more likely farther north along
the I-80 corridor).
A brief period of zonal flow or perhaps weak ridging keeps
Tuesday dry, followed by what guidance is suggesting may be the
stronger of the two waves digging across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday. That mid/late week wave appears to be
our better chance at getting a cold front and higher precip
chances across more of the area, but it's still too early to
nail down any details regarding timing or coverage.
Generally speaking, temperatures remain steady and near seasonal
through the long term period under quasi-zonal flow. The one
exception could be Wednesday and Wednesday night, which will
trend warmer if the aforementioned mid-week system over the
Great Lakes deepens enough to establish a warm sector before
reaching the upper Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR 75% likely after 21Z at FKL and DUJ, and expected to
continue elsewhere as high pressure and subsidence continues for
the day today with approaching high pressure.
On the backside of the departing low today, gusty northwest
winds are expected area-wide, with a 60% to 100% chance of
daytime max gusts exceeding 25kts, a 50% to 80% chance of
exceeding 30kts (save ZZV), and a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding
35kts. Peak wind gust probabilities are between 18Z and 00Z,
though winds gusts may remain elevated overnight with continued
near-ababatic temperature profiles.
VFR is favored to continue through tonight with backing winds
expected aloft and continued drying. The highest chance of any
MVFR cigs is 20% at FKL and 35% at DUJ.
.OUTLOOK...
Outside of widely scattered lake-enhanced showers into the
weekend (and potentially brief restrictions for FKL/DUJ), VFR
is expected to prevail with 80% confidence. The next chance of
restrictions and rain is possible on a passing wave Monday, most
favored for FKL/DUJ.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Rackley
LONG TERM...Cermak/Rackley
AVIATION...Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 12:15 PM EDT---------------
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