CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 4:58 AM EDT759
FXUS61 KCLE 300858
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
458 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough should linger over our region today through Saturday
night. Simultaneously, the primary low embedded in this trough
should wobble northeastward from the central Appalachians to the
Canadian Maritimes by early Saturday morning and then wobble
farther northeastward through Saturday night. On Sunday, a ridge
should build over our region from the southern Great Plains and
Mid Mississippi Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Up in the mid/upper-levels, an extensive trough lingers over the
eastern United States and vicinity through tonight. Within this
trough, the 500 mb low should wobble generally NE'ward from near
the eastern KY/eastern TN border area to eastern NY by daybreak
Friday as a potent jet streak just east of the 500 mb low
translates generally NE'ward from the southeast U.S. to New
England. Focused divergence aloft and MSLP falls associated with
the left-front quadrant of the jet streak should allow the
primary surface low to deepen and wobble NE'ward from the
central Appalachians to near the border of QC and VT by daybreak
Friday. Accordingly, the surface trough in which the surface
low is embedded will linger over our region. This low track at
the surface and aloft will keep northern OH and NW PA in the
cold sector and allow CAA at/near the surface to persist.
Daytime highs should reach the upper 40's to lower 50's today.
Tonight's lows should reach the mid 30's to mid 40's.
As the low pressure system's warm conveyor belt, including TROWAL,
continues to undergo isentropic ascent aloft while tapping into
abundant moisture from the Gulf and southern Gulf Stream, widespread
rain will impact our region today. Rain will be steady to heavy at
times due to the following: the release of weak potential instability
via frontogenetical convergence and moist ascent in the TROWAL;
lake-enhancement of rain via the seeder-feeder process and weak
to moderate lake-induced CAPE amidst a sufficiently-cold and
moist low/mid-level atmospheric column over ~14C Lake Erie.
Lake-enhanced rain (LEnR) will stream generally WSW'ward from
Lake Erie early this morning before beginning to stream
generally SW'ward around daybreak as mean low-level flow backs
from ENE'erly to NE'erly. As mean low-level flow continues to
back to N'erly, LEnR should begin to stream generally S'ward
from Lake Erie by this late afternoon and early evening. The
warm conveyor belt, including TROWAL, and associated widespread
rain will then exit our region generally from WSW to ENE this
evening through tonight given the projected track of the low at
the surface and aloft. Accordingly, LEnR should transition to
pure lake-effect rain (LER), steady to heavy at times, as mid-level
moisture decreases and the seeder-feeder process ceases, yet
the low-level atmospheric column remains sufficiently-cold and
moist over and downwind of Lake Erie and lake-induced CAPE
remains weak to moderate. The LEnR and then LER should stream
generally S'ward and then SE'ward from Lake Erie as mean low-
level flow backs from N'erly to NW'erly. Most of our CWA is
expected to receive an additional 0.75" to 2.00" of rainfall
through tonight. However, less rainfall is expected in our I-75
corridor counties due to a shorter cumulative duration of
precip. Here, additional rainfall should range from 0.10" to
0.75" with a tight west-to-east gradient.
Note: CAA across ~14C Lake Erie will maintain an unstable
marine boundary layer through tonight. The resulting lake-induced
convective mixing of the boundary layer over and immediately
downwind of the lake will tap into stronger flow aloft. As a
result, onshore surface winds, backing from NE'erly to NW'erly,
should gust up to 35 to 45 mph along and near the lakeshore,
especially from Ottawa County to Erie County, PA, at times,
especially from about daybreak this morning through tonight.
Refrained from issuing a Wind Advisory since various ensemble
forecast systems indicate low probabilities (much less than 50%)
for advisory criteria wind gusts (46 to 57 mph).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded
disturbances affect our region as the 500 mb low wobbles NE'ward
from eastern NY toward northern ME and surface troughing lingers
over our region. Isolated to scattered rain showers are possible
as moist isentropic ascent precedes the axes of the shortwave
disturbances and low-level convergence/moist ascent along attendant
surface trough axes release weak potential instability in the lowest
1 km AGL. During Friday night, the surface trough weakens
over/near Lake Erie and a surface ridge attempts to build from
the TN Valley and vicinity as the 500 mb low wobbles NE'ward
across northern ME and vicinity to the Canadian Maritimes and a
shortwave ridge aloft traverses our region from west to east.
Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. However, periods of LER, steady to
perhaps heavy at times, are expected on Friday through Friday
night, in/near the snow belt of NE OH/NW PA, amidst WNW'erly to
NW'erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently cold/moist air
over/downwind of Lake Erie and weak to moderate lake-induced
CAPE over the lake. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the
upper 40's to lower 50's on Friday and overnight lows should
reach mainly the mid 30's to mid 40's around daybreak Saturday
as net low-level CAA persists. Note W'erly to NW'erly onshore
surface winds should gust up to 35 to 45 mph immediately
downwind of Lake Erie from Lorain County to Erie County, PA at
times Friday into Friday night for similar reasons noted in the
near-term discussion. Based on latest trends in model guidance,
including ensemble forecast systems, there is limited potential
for advisory-criteria gusts.
On Saturday through Saturday night, the ridge at the surface and
aloft should exit E'ward as a shortwave trough axis approaches
and eventually begins to enter our region from the west, allowing
surface troughing to become reestablished easily across northern
OH and NW PA. LER, steady to heavy at times, is expected
over/downwind of Lake Erie, in/near the primary snow belt of NE
OH/NW PA, as lake-induced CAPE remains weak to moderate and the
mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air backs from
W'erly toward WSW'erly. Outside of LER, periodic and isolated
rain showers are possible along and ahead of the shortwave
trough axis and attendant surface trough axis for the same
reasons mentioned in the first paragraph of this section.
Afternoon highs should reach the upper 40's to mid 50's on
Saturday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30's to mid
40's around daybreak Sunday.
The above-mentioned trough axis at the surface and aloft will
continue to shift E'ward across our region on Sunday and be
followed by a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft building and
then cresting E'ward across our CWA Sunday night. Isolated and
periodic rain showers remain possible along and ahead of the
trough axis at the surface and aloft for the same reasons
mentioned in the first paragraph of the short- term section,
although the potential for these showers is quite low at this
time. Lingering LER should stream generally E'ward or NE'ward
from Lake Erie as the mean low-level flow of sufficiently-
cold/moist air should vary between W'erly and SW'erly and lake-
induced CAPE should be at least weak. Afternoon highs should
reach mainly the lower to mid 50's on Sunday. Overnight lows
should reach mainly the mid 30's to lower 40's around daybreak
Monday as a chilly air mass persists over the eastern Great
Lakes and Upper OH Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave
disturbances, and net surface troughing should impact northern
OH and NW PA on Monday through Tuesday. Periodic and isolated
rain showers may accompany the shortwave disturbances and
attendant surface through axes. LER should persist over and
downwind of Lake Erie as a suffciently-cold/moist mean low-level
flow veers gradually from SW'erly to NW'erly with the E'ward
passage of a primary shortwave trough axis. Afternoon highs
should reach mainly the 50's on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.
In between, overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30's to
mid 40's around daybreak Tuesday.
During Tuesday night through Wednesday, a ridge at the surface
and aloft should build from the west and eventually crest E'ward
across northern OH and NW PA. Primarily dry weather is expected
as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. As net low-level
WAA and a lowering subsidence inversion accompany the ridge and
cause lake-induced CAPE to wane considerably, primarily light
and NW'erly mean low-level flow-related LER showers should end
gradually Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Wednesday
should feature morning lows mainly in the mid 30's to lower 40's
around daybreak and afternoon highs in the lower 50's to lower
60's.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
The main message for aviation weather with this late night 06z
TAF update will be deteriorating conditions both ceilings and
visibilities later this morning and through the afternoon.
Conditions are starting about VFR to MVFR as of 06z. Widespread
light to moderate rain will continue to move across the area
this morning into the afternoon. Ceilings will lower between 500
to 900 feet for all TAF sites later this morning with the
exception of maybe TOL. We have TOL lowering to low end MVFR
ceilings. Visibilities from light to moderate rain and mist
will drop between 1 and 3 sm for most TAF sites later this
morning into the afternoon. By the evening and towards the end
of the TAF period, conditions will improve for TOL and FDY to
VFR. For MFD and CLE, low end MVFR expected by this evening. The
rest of the TAFs will likely stay in IFR into this evening.
Winds will increase from the north and northeast this morning
12 to 17 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Winds will become
northwesterly 12 to 17 knots this afternoon with gusts around 25
knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania Friday through the weekend with lake
effect clouds and rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions over the lake will become rough today with Easterly to
Northeasterly Gales of 35 to 40 knots. A strong low pressure system
will pass by to the east of Lake Erie later in the day. Winds will
become more Northerly then Northwesterly by this evening. Waves in
the open water will be 8 to 13 feet today. Waves in the nearshore
water will be 4 to 8 feet. At this time, we do not have Gales for
the Lake Erie Islands but that will be monitored for possible
expansion of the Gale Warning. Later tonight, will be decrease below
Gales to 25 to 34 knots from the Northwest and continue into Friday.
Waves will range 5 to 10 feet later tonight into Friday as well.
Winds and waves will slowly decrease Friday night into Saturday. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed after the Gale Warning
ends late Thursday evening. A weak high pressure system will move
over the lake Saturday night with lighter winds and waves. A
Southwesterly flow will return over the lake on Sunday 5 to 15 knots
and those SW winds will increase 20 to 30 knots by Monday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
LEZ144>149.
Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
for LEZ144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 4:58 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
