ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:16 AM EDT454
FXUS61 KILN 271016
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
616 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few light rain showers will be possible near and south of the Ohio
River through Tuesday, but most spots will remain dry until midweek.
Near normal temperatures are expected until much cooler air settles
in for the second half of the workweek. Widespread rain is expected
Wednesday through Thursday before coming to an end by Friday.
Additional light rain chances will return by Sunday, with seasonably
chilly air lingering for the foreseeable future.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The midlevel closed low from the south-central plains will drift E
through the mid MS Rvr Vly into the TN Vly through today, slowly
weakening as it does so. A tight moisture gradient will slowly pivot
N into far srn parts of the ILN FA by this evening, with much drier
air positioned N of the OH Rvr versus south of the river. A few
light SHRA may develop into parts of N KY by this evening amidst
sufficient moisture and weak (but persistent) convergence/lift. Even
with this being said, expect rainfall amounts to remain generally a
tenth of an inch or less where rain does occur. There continues to be
some latitudinal variability regarding the positioning of this
midlevel system (and the better forcing associated with it), but
confidence is fairly high for most (if not all) locales N of the
river to remain dry into tonight.
Given the tight moisture gradient entrenched across the region, sky
conditions will be quite variable again today, with abundant sunshine
favored for I-70 and points N, with mostly cloudy skies likely in N
KY. This will help temps climb into the lower to mid 60s N of the OH
Rvr, with upper 50s to around 60 degrees for much of KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The midlevel low migrating through the TN Vly will slowly flatten as
it pivots to the ESE by Tuesday morning, with a narrow axis of
higher PW air and weak convergence being maintained back to the NW
stretching through the srn/wrn OH Vly. A few light SHRA or sprinkles
will be possible in N KY into the day Tuesday, but once again most
spots will be dry through the short term period.
Temps tonight will vary quite a bit from N to S, owing to the thick
clouds across the S, which will keep temps a bit warmer in the upper
40s. Further to the N, in WC/central OH, some clearer skies will
allow for temps to dip into the upper 30s by daybreak Tuesday. Temps
rebound to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees on Tuesday area-wide
with thick clouds being maintained in N KY through SE/EC IN. Abundant
sunshine will prevail in central OH through the daytime Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level vorticity max ejects out of the Plains into the
Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday night. Surface cyclogenesis
commences in the lower Mississippi River Valley east of the upper
level shortwave trough overnight. The system quickly becomes
vertically stacked on Wednesday and slowly drifts northeast toward
the Ohio Valley into the middle and end of the work week. Rain
chances increase Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon as the
stacked low moves into the area from the southwest. Rain chances
peak by Wednesday evening and remain elevated through much of the
day on Thursday as moisture wraps around the northwest side of the
low. The stacked system slowly fills and drifts further northeast of
the Ohio Valley on Friday which gradually reduces rain chances by
the weekend. Temperatures will be below late October averages.
Chilly, unsettled northwesterly flow persists into the weekend. Low
end short chances for showers hang on as upper level shortwave
troughs pivot through in the broad troughing over the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail area-wide through the TAF period, with
persistent mid/high clouds lingering near srn sites of KCVG/KLUK.
Further to the N, for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, clearer skies will be
maintained through the period.
Better/deeper moisture will slowly pivot N into the region toward
12z Tuesday, resulting in thicker/more widespread clouds between
4-6kft for KCVG/KLUK by late in the period. Some borderline MVFR CIGs
may get close to KCVG/KLUK around 12z Tuesday, but lack of
confidence precluded inclusion in the fcst at this time. Have also
added a PROB30 SHRA for KCVG/KLUK given latest guidance showing some
SHRA getting close to these sites around daybreak Tuesday. But most
of the activity may end up staying to the S of even these srn sites.
East winds around 7-10kts through mid morning will increase to
10-12kts, with gusts to 15-18kts by this afternoon. ENE winds around
7-10kts are expected past 00z before increasing to 10-15kts during
the daytime Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely, with MVFR VSBYs possible,
late Wednesday through Thursday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:16 AM EDT---------------
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