LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 1:18 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...118
FXUS63 KLMK 291718
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread light to moderate rainfall is overspreading the
region this morning. Rain will continue through Wednesday night.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, though some areas
in southern Indiana may see a bit less than 1 inch.
* Cool and dry for Halloween with highs in the mid/upper 50s, but
late evening temperatures dropping back into the 40s.
* Much uncertainty with a potential system this weekend, though
most of the weekend should remain dry.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
29/13Z surface analysis shows an area of low pressure just southwest
of KPAH. Widespread low-cloud cover blanketed the region and bands
of moderate to occasionally heavy rain were moving northward across
Kentucky. Temperatures were chilly with readings in the upper 40s to
the very low 50s. 24 hour rainfall totals have been around a
quarter of an inch over in the Bluegrass with around 0.60 inches in
the I-65 corridor. Axis of highest precipitation has been out west
of I-165 where 0.8-1.5 inches have fallen.
Forecast remains on track for the afternoon hours. Surface low is
forecast to drop southward into western TN through the afternoon
while periods of moderate to occasional heavy rainfall continue to
move northward across the region. Not expecting much of a diurnal
rise in temps today, most locations will remain in the upper 40s to
the very low 50s. Given the saturated atmospheric profile, probably
will not see much in the way of wind gusts today. However, as
surface low moves off to the east late tonight and Thursday, a
tighter pressure gradient may result in a period of gusty winds
across the region Thursday morning and afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
At this time, a closed upper low is pushing southeast into the mid-
Mississippi Valley. The associated surface low pressure center is
located over the Missouri bootheel. These features will push east
into the Tennessee Valley through the day today, where they will
mutually strengthen. In the low levels, a 35-40kt LLJ is building
over southern Kentucky, helping to reinforce low-level moisture and
PWATs around 1.0 inch. Present moisture and ample lift through broad
troughing, CVA, and underneath the left exit region of the upper-
level jet will allow for widespread rain chances today and into
tonight. The low pressure will quickly occlude and drag the system
over southern Tennessee, before lifting northeast over the western
Appalachians. This will keep the lower Ohio Valley in the northern,
occluded part of the system, allowing for widespread stratiform
precip with embedded bands of heavier rain. Looking to see a total
of about 1 inch over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky and 1.5-
2 inches elsewhere. Some very localized areas in southern Kentucky
could see up to 2.0 inches. Flash flooding potential remains quite
low with this system, though minor flooding will be possible in
heavy rainfall. Additionally, as the pressure gradient increases,
winds will gust up to 25mph today.
Tonight, the system will begin to push off to the northeast and
precip chances will taper off from southwest to northeast. Although,
as the system continues to occlude, precip will wrap around the back
of the low pressure and keep light to moderate stratiform rain over
the Bluegrass through Thursday afternoon, before tapering off.
Thursday afternoon and through the evening, clouds will clear from
west to east.
High temperatures today and Thursday will remain in the upper 40s to
mid 50s as overcast skies and rain persists. Thursday night is
expected to be much cooler, as skies clear and weak CAA move into
the region. Friday morning temperatures may be in the mid-to-upper
30s and some warmer spots in the low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
On Friday, the upper low will continue to push off to the east and
the region will transition to more zonal flow aloft. Conditions will
remain dry and partly sunny for Friday. It should be a much needed
break from the overcast skies this week. Friday evening (peak trick-
or-treating hours) we are looking for temperatures in the low 50s
before 8PM ET and mid-to-upper 40s from 8-10PM ET.
Over the weekend, a trough and eventual closed upper low will move
through the Midwest and into the lower Ohio Valley. There is much
uncertainty beyond this point. Over the last several forecast
periods, we have seen great differences in timing and location of
the closed low. Some guidance and ensembles show a slow progression
south into the Tennessee Valley, while others see a faster
progression into the southeastern CONUS. With either solution, most
of Saturday will likely be dry and Sunday into Monday could see
increased precip chances. Additionally, this system will bring a
cold front through the region, which will reinforce slightly below
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Surface low pressure center just east of KDYR will continue to move
eastward across TN this afternoon. Light to moderate stratiform
rainfall will continue at the terminals this afternoon and evening.
Cigs look to run in the MVFR range with occasional drops to IFR.
Vsbys look to remain mostly MVFR though some IFR drops in heavier
rainfall are possible. Winds will remain out of the east to east-
northeast through the afternoon hours. For tonight, surface low
will move eastward and away from the region, but backlash showers
are expected with surface winds going to the north and eventually to
the northwest. Winds will likely become gusty late tonight and
through the morning hours on Thursday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 1:18 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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