IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:49 PM EDT418
FXUS63 KIWX 252349
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
749 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated rain showers or sprinkles are possible through late
evening.
- Cool and dry conditions will persist through early next week.
- Light rain is possible during the middle and end of next week
with temperatures remaining cool.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Quiet wx and near to slightly below normal temperatures will persist
through at least Tuesday morning. A prominent ridge drifting east
through Ontario and western Quebec will block a southern Plains
upper low well south into the TN and lower OH Valleys by early next
week. This will keep dry low level easterly flow locked in. Mid-high
level clouds, and perhaps a few sprinkles, over the area this
afternoon will also get a push south as a compact shortwave drops
southeast through the lower Great Lakes later today, resulting in a
mostly sunny Sunday and Monday.
Pattern evolution then turns rather chaotic into Wednesday and
Thursday as three negative height anomalies (incoming upper jet
digging a low into the central US, a Northeast US upper low, and
what's left of the TN Valley/Southeast trough) interact into a large
Eastern US low pressure circulation. A model consensus does suggest
that the low will initially pass south Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday, before pushing off toward the East Coast. This would keep
the bulk of the steady deformation/fgen rain south and east of the
local area, though did retain NBM chance PoPs given the large model
spread with this complex upper level setup. Upper troughing and
northwest flow then settles in per ensemble guidance Friday into
next weekend with periodic chances for scattered showers and below
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites, with ceilings
generally 7-10K per surrounding observations. Light rain showers
or sprinkles are possible through late evening, but should
remain non-impactful to the terminals. Winds will remain
variable or light out of the east, strengthening slightly during
the afternoon hours on Sunday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:49 PM EDT---------------
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