PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 6:04 PM CDT327
FXUS63 KPAH 262304
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
604 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Steady rainfall is expected to continue until late overnight
and then start tapering off into tomorrow morning.
- Rain chances come back Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and
taper off Thursday morning.
- Seasonably cool temperatures continue this week with the
chilliest day being Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
An upper level southern stream low pushes through the area today and
tomorrow while the associated sfc low pushes through the lower
Mississippi Valley. Deep layer saturation has lead to periods
of steady rain across portions of the area today. Rain is
expected to continue until late overnight when things will start
to diminish and then taper off tomorrow morning as the upper
level disturbance phases with the northern stream trof to the
northeast. There will then be a brief lull until Tuesday
afternoon.
A large, amplified, longwave digging trof ejects into the Plains
Tuesday afternoon and closes off by Wednesday morning. Left jet exit
region dynamics help with rapid cyclogenesis as an approximately
1,000 mb sfc low develops over the CWA. Chances for showers ramp
back up Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and taper off Thursday
early morning. Between today and Wednesday, storm total rainfall
will be around 1-3". Wednesday expect breezy winds with the tighter
sfc pressure gradient.
Seasonably cool temperatures continue this week with the chilliest
day being Wednesday with highs in the 50s. Lows Wednesday night
through Friday night might be too warm right now as NBM is sitting
around the 75th percentile. This means Thursday night and Friday
night some places could see lows closer to freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Degraded flying conditions can be expected through much of the
upcoming TAF period. IFR ceiling/visibility from rain and low
clouds looks to persist invof CGI to PAH to HVC and south.
Lighter rain and drier air in the lower part of the atmosphere
is keeping conditions a little better north of that line but as
the low swings eastward stands to reason that conditions will
deteriorate to at least MVFR tonight pretty much everywhere. A
slug of heavier (IFR) rain is moving up through MDH/MWA to MVN
in the near term as well.
Models are pretty insistent on holding on to IFR in the south
and MVFR in the north all day tomorrow, could see things start
to improve in the late afternoon but these vertically stacked lows
and their wrapping cool air do tend to keep us socked in more
often than not.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 6:04 PM CDT---------------
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