BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:14 PM EDT594
FXUS61 KBOX 241714
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
114 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and cool weather through the weekend as high pressure
builds across Quebec. Onshore flow may result in some low clouds and
a few showers by early next week with the potential for a more
significant coastal storm by mid to late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Mixture of clouds & sun today with nothing more than a spot shower
* High temps today in the upper 50s to near 60
* Dry & cool tonight with lows in the 30s to the lower 40s
Details...
Today...
The deep upper trough and associated cold pool aloft will remain
across the region today. This coupled with shortwave energy will
result in plenty of diurnal CU especially this afternoon. While we
expect partial sunshine...a period of mostly cloudy skies may impact
parts of the region especially during the afternoon. The lack of low
level forcing should result in generally dry weather outside perhaps
a brief spot shower or two. High temps will be slightly cooler than
yesterday in the upper 50s to near 60...but winds will be lighter
than yesterday from the west at 5 to 15 mph.
Tonight...
We should see some of the diurnal cu dissipate tonight...but still
have a few clouds around given proximity to the upper trough.
Otherwise...a dry and cool night with lows mainly in the 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry & cool Sat/Sun...Lows in the upper 20s & 30s with highs in the
50s but the high terrain may only reach the upper 40s on Sun
Details...
This Weekend...
Large high pressure will center itself over Quebec this weekend. Low
level NW to eventually N flow will bring dry but cool temperatures.
Highs will mainly be in the 50s with the cooler of the days on
Sunday when parts of the high terrain may only reach the upper 40s.
Low temps will generally be in the upper 20s and 30s. We should
mention that there is a low risk for a spot shower towards the
Cape/Islands with cool northerly flow...but for all intensive
purposes a dry and cool weekend with slightly below normal
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...
* A few showers possible early next week with perhaps a stronger
coastal storm by mid-late in the week
* Cool daytime temperatures next week but with limited nighttime
cooling given onshore flow along with clouds and showers at times
Details...
Next Week...
Forecast confidence remains low next week...but some unsettled
weather is likely with the potential for a more significant coastal
storm by mid to late next week. That being said...there are so many
moving parts which makes this forecast quite complex and uncertain.
This includes current Tropical Storm Melissa which is expected to
become a Major Hurricane by the end of the weekend and move very
slowly in the vicinity of the Caribbean next week.
A large 1035+ mb high pressure system will be shifting eastward in
the vicinity of the eastern Quebec/Canadian Maritimes early next
week. This will generate a NNE low level flow of air and perhaps
some low clouds and a few showers...especially near the coast early
next week. At the same time...deep closed upper level energy across
northern New England which will begin to retrograde westward. This
will also combined with additional shortwave energy dropping
southeastward across the Great Lakes. This makes the forecast quite
complex...because specific timing and the phasing of energy will
determine the outcome. We do think coastal cyclogenesis will
occur...but where/when and just how intense this coastal storm gets
remains uncertain. Some of the guidance has a weaker initial coastal
wave followed by a stronger secondary low pressure system later in
the week. How much upper level support goes into these waves will
have a significant impact on the eventual outcome.
So in a nutshell...confidence is increasing some unsettled weather
next week. However...timing and whether we are impacted by a strong
coastal storm by mid-late next week remains uncertain. Given the
large high pressure shifting into the Canadian Maritimes...the
potential is there for a windswept heavy rain if the storm gets
close enough to the coast given the tight pressure gradient.
Fortunately...astronomical high tides are relatively low so it will
be tough to get much more than minor coastal flooding unless we have
a very powerful storm. High temperatures will be cool with the
onshore flow...but clouds and the threat of precipitation will limit
nighttime cooling.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update...
Through Saturday night...High confidence.
VFR through the period. A few passing showers through early
evening, otherwise diurnal CU diminishing tonight. NW wind 5-10
kt becoming light Sat night.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Tuesday/...
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday through Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Sunday...High confidence.
Large high pressure building in from the west and centering itself
across Quebec will result in a weak enough to pressure gradient to
keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds through
the weekend.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Tuesday/...
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...KJC/Frank
MARINE...Frank
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:14 PM EDT----------------
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