CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 1:25 PM EDT021
FXUS61 KCLE 271725
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
125 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge continues to extend from Quebec and
vicinity through Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a trough should
overspread our region from the south and west. This trough should
linger over our region through this Saturday. Also during the
Tuesday night through Saturday time frame, a primary low embedded
within the trough should develop over the Lower Mississippi
Valley and then deepen, overall, as the low moves generally
northeastward near the spine of the Appalachians and toward
southern and central Quebec.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The axis of a fairly narrow mid/upper-level ridge should
continue to extend from near the southern Appalachians to the
western Great Lakes through Tuesday. Simultaneously and at the
surface, the ridge should remain centered over central Quebec
and extend SSW'ward into our region. Fair weather and mainly
clear sky are expected to persist as mid/upper-level convergence
and associated large-scale, stabilizing subsidence continue to
reside over our CWA. NE'erly to E'erly surface winds persist
across northern OH and NW PA and will be associated with weak,
net CAA at/near the surface. Daytime highs are expected to reach
mainly the mid 50's to near 60F during the late afternoon hours
of today and Tuesday. In between, overnight lows should reach
the upper 20's to mid 30's in interior northern OH and NW PA,
while lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's are expected along and
near ~58F Lake Erie around daybreak Tuesday. Another set of
Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings will be issued by the day
shift for applicable forecast zones if the end of the growing
season has yet to be declared for portions of our CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
In the mid/upper-levels, the aforementioned ridge should retreat
N'ward and NE'ward during this time period as a trough
shifts generally E'ward and then NE'ward from the Great Plains
toward the Great Lakes, Northeast United States, and vicinity,
including our CWA. Simultaneously, a potent jet streak is
expected to round the base of the trough as the jet streak
translates from the the Great Plains and south- central United
States to the Appalachians and eventually New England and
eastern Canada. Divergence aloft, associated with the mid/upper-
level jet streak, and associated large-scale ascent/MSLP falls
should allow a surface low to develop NE'ward over the Lower MS
and TN Valleys Tuesday night and then deepen further as the low
wobbles generally NE'ward in vicinity of the spine of the
Appalachians and toward southern QC on Wednesday through
Thursday night. Accordingly, a surface trough associated with
the low should overspread our region from the south and west
Tuesday night and linger over northern OH and NW PA through
daybreak Friday.
Given the projected path of the surface low, our regional
surface winds are expected to back gradually from to ENE'erly
to WNW'erly during the short-term period, which will allow our
region to remain within the cold sector. Accordingly, overnight
lows should reach the upper 20's to upper 30's in interior
northern OH and NW PA around daybreak Wednesday, while lows
mainly in the upper 30's to mid 40's are expected along and near
Lake Erie. Wednesday's daytime highs should reach the lower to
mid 50's and be followed by overnight lows mainly in the upper
30's to mid 40's around daybreak Thursday. Daytime highs should
reach only the upper 40's to lower 50's on Thursday and be
followed by overnight lows mainly in the mid 30's to lower 40's
around daybreak Friday.
The warm conveyor belt, including TROWAL, of the low pressure
system will undergo isentropic ascent aloft while tapping into
abundant moisture from the Gulf and eventually southern Gulf
Stream. Accordingly, widespread cloud cover will gradually
overspread our region from the south and southwest Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, as will scattered to widespread rain.
During that time frame, ENE'erly surface winds associated with
net cool and dry air advection mean it will take some time for
precip to overcome a rather dry antecedent low-level atmospheric
column and reach the surface via the wet-bulb effect. On
Thursday through Thursday night, scattered to widespread rain
associated with the warm conveyor belt, including TROWAL,
undergoing moist isentropic ascent aloft should continue to
impact our region. Rain is expected to be steady to heavy at
times overnight Wednesday night through Thursday night due to
the following: the release of weak potential instability via
frontogenetical convergence and moist ascent in the TROWAL;
lake-enhancement of precip via the seeder-feeder process and at
least weak lake-induced CAPE amidst a sufficiently-cold/moist
low/mid-level atmospheric column over the ~14C lake. Any lake-
enhanced precip should stream generally SW'ward from Lake Erie
overnight Wednesday night amidst NE'erly mean low-level flow. On
Thursday through Thursday night, lake-enhanced precip should
eventually stream generally S'ward and then SE'ward from the
lake as mean low-level flow backs to N'erly and then to NW'erly.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In the mid/upper-levels, the trough should exit NE'ward from
our region on Friday through Friday night as a subtle shortwave
ridge builds from the Mid-MS Valley and vicinity. At the
surface, the above-mentioned low should wobble NE'ward and away
from southern QC, but a weak and trailing trough should linger
over our region due to the expansion of relatively-warm,
lake-modified air as a chilly air mass lingers over/near the
Great Lakes. Wrap-around rain associated with the TROWAL should
exit NE'ward from our region on Friday. Lake-enhanced rain over
and generally east of Lake Erie should transition to pure lake-
effect rain (LER) by sunset Friday evening as mid-level moisture
plummets, yet the low-level atmospheric column remains
sufficiently-cold/moist over/downwind of the lake. Daytime highs
should reach only the upper 40's to lower 50's. LER should
persist over and generally east of Lake Erie Friday night amidst
a continued favorable environment. During Friday night, odds
favor dry weather outside the LER as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the shortwave ridge. Overnight lows should reach
mainly the mid 30's to lower 40's around daybreak Saturday.
On Saturday through Sunday, cyclonic SW'erly to NW'erly flow
aloft should impact our region as a primary shortwave trough
advances E'ward from the western Great Lakes toward the
northeast United States and much more subtle shortwave
disturbances embedded in the flow aloft also affect our region.
Accordingly, net surface troughing is expected to linger across
northern OH and NW PA. LER should oscillate over and downwind
of Lake Erie as the passage of each shortwave disturbance causes
the mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air to vary
between W'erly and SW'erly. Outside the LER, isolated to
scattered rain showers are expected due, in part to moist
isentropic ascent aloft, preceding the axis of each shortwave
disturbance. Daytime highs this weekend should reach the upper
40's to mid 50's each afternoon. Lows should reach mainly the
mid 30's to mid 40's around daybreak Sunday. Note: the
potential for snow to mix-in with rain at the surface later
this week and upcoming weekend appears to be essentially nil since
850 mb temperatures are forecast to be no colder than -1C to
-3C and the vertical profile of wet-bulb temperature should
yield a fairly-deep surface-based melting layer over our region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR to persist
through the TAF period as high cirrus periodically overspreads
the area from the south. Winds are generally out of the east
this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of 20 to 22
knots. Winds will remain elevated out of the east overnight, 8
to 10 knots. Winds will retain an easterly direction for Tuesday
afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of 20 to 22
knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in widespread rain Wednesday evening
through Friday. Non-VFR may linger across far Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania on Saturday in rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
East-northeast flow is expected on Lake Erie through Thursday as we
remain sandwiched between high pressure over Quebec and a
developing low pressure over the southern portion of the CONUS. This
flow is expected to strengthen to around 15 to 25 knots this
afternoon and persisting through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Erie for this period of
stronger winds. There will be a bit of a lull of winds down to 10-15
knots as they become a bit more southeasterly Tuesday morning before
strengthening back to 15 to 25 knots Tuesday night. It's likely
additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed for this period
(and beyond).
The aforementioned low is expected to develop to around 1004 mb as
it moves northeast towards the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday
and then possibly deepening to sub-1000mb as it continues towards
just south of Lake Erie by Thursday. As the low approaches, east-
northeast winds should strengthen to 20-25 knots by Wednesday night,
and then 25-35 knots on Thursday. At this point, there is a good
chance of gale force winds with east-northeast winds on Thursday,
primarily near and east of the The Islands. Winds as high as 40
knots and waves as high as 10 ft may be possible in a reasonable
worst case scenario. As the low continues northeastward towards
Ontario/Quebec, winds become northwest Thursday night into Friday
morning and then westerly Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
These winds are mostly likely to be around 25-30 knots, though there
could be a brief period of near gale-force winds Friday morning
through early Friday afternoon.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>146.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 1:25 PM EDT---------------
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