JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:55 PM EDT463
FXUS63 KJKL 262355
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather will return tonight with chances of rain,
especially for more southern locations.
- The rain chances and unsettled weather linger for much of the
week as two upper level lows affect eastern KY.
- Frost is possible Friday night to early on Saturday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
Light rain is lifting northeast across the Cumberland River Basin
at update time, preceded by sprinkles in some areas. This
steadier light rain is expected to lift northeast through the
evening but generally struggle to advance beyond the Mountain
Parkway due to entrenched dry air being reinforced by flow around
strong high pressure over the Northeast US/Eastern Canada.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
As of mid to late afternoon, the axis of a shortwave upper level
ridging extended from the Carolinas to Southern Appalachians with
an upper level low and associated trough over the Northeast Conus
and an upper ridge centered in the western Great Lakes. To the
south of that upper ridge, an upper level low was centered in the
vicinity of the Ozarks at this time. 500 mb heights have begun to
fall with multiple shortwaves rotating around this upper low with
the first of these extending from western KY to northern AL and
another rotating into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough was evolving over the Northwest Conus to Northern
Rockies south of an upper low centered near the Alberta and
Saskatchewan border. The sfc system was tracking into the Lower MS
Valley. Some light rain and sprinkles were reaching the ground
from radar returns in advance of the first shortwave and sfc low
pressure system from near the I-75 corridor west with more
substantial showers form northern GA into southeastern TN to
middle TN and western TN to IL. Despite passing mid and high
clouds, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s with
upper 50s above 2500 feet.
The upper level low will progress from the Ozarks to near the
confluence of the OH and MS Rivers by dawn on Monday and then
track into the western KY/northern Middle TN vicinity near sunset
on Monday. This system and multiple shortwaves rotating around
will bring deeper moisture, with PW into the 1 to 1.25 inch range
by Monday. The first shortwave should work across eastern KY this
evening into the first part of the overnight followed by another
shortwave later tonight into Monday. The sfc low meanwhile will
pass to the south across the Gulf coast states and off the GA and
FL coast through the daylight hours of Monday. Chances for showers
will peak during the evening with a brief min followed by another
peak from late tonight into Monday. Chances will be highest nearer
to the upper system and where moisture will be deepest generally
along and south of the Mtn Pkwy while pops will be lower to the
north and northeast. The upper low tracks across central and
eastern KY and into the Southern Appalachians through Monday
evening and Monday night while another upper low/trough begins to
evolve upstream over the Plains/Central US that should impact the
region early in the long term period. Likely to categorical pops
continue in the more southern locations on Monday evening into
the early part of the overnight before decreasing to end the
period as the area gets in between upper level systems. Rainfall
from this first upper system will be light near and north of I-64
and more substantial to the south, particularly in the Cumberland
River basin.
Diurnal ranges will be more limited than what has occurred over
much of the past week due to cloud cover rain with lows in the
40s tonight and 50s to around 60 Monday, followed by mid to upper
40s lows for Monday night.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
Tuesday, models and ensembles depict a low departing the
Kentucky/Tennessee area, moving towards the Carolinas. Light off and
on showers may result through the day. As this occurs a shortwave
over the Intermountain West digs southeast into a trough over the
Central Plains. This energy strengthens into a strong upper level
low, located over the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday morning.
Its precip shield is expected to produce rain over Eastern Kentucky
starting early (pre-dawn) Wednesday morning continuing through the
day. As the lows center continues to dip south and east (over
Western Carolinas), showers continue through Thursday. Later
Thursday the upper level low departs to the Northeast. Quasi-zonal
flow will return to the region but more 500-mb height falls arrive
Saturday, as the next upper level low begins to dip south out of the
Northern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Shower chances will
look to increase again heading into Sunday as the upper level low
approaches the Tennessee/Kentucky area.
Through the extended period, afternoon temperatures will generally
be in the mid to upper 50s. Thursday and Friday will be the coolest
with highs in the lower 50s. This is due to the anticipated rain,
and cold air advection on the back end of the low. Lows will likely
be in the low to mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night, and in the mid
to upper 30s Thursday through Sunday night. Frost will be possible
Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time frost is not
expected to be as widespread as the frost earlier this week. The
current plan among surrounding NWS offices is to mark November 1st
as the end of the growing season.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VFR conditions were noted at TAF issuance and should prevail
through at least 12Z west of I-75 and perhaps for the entire
period north of the Mountain Parkway. Light rain is developing in
the Lake Cumberland area, preceded by spotty sprinkles, and will
continue spreading northeast through 6Z. This activity should
struggle to advance beyond the Mountain Parkway corridor however due
to entrenched drier air over the Mid-Ohio Valley. With that rain,
ceilings will also gradually decrease, likely lowering to MVFR or
worse during the day on Monday for locations south of the
Mountain Parkway. Winds will be variable and weak, averaging
between northeast and east at under 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:55 PM EDT---------------
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