ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 9:02 AM EDT205
FXUS61 KILN 241302
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
902 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will slowly drift east from the Great Lakes
into New England through the end of the week. Surface high pressure
will build into the region for this weekend. Below normal
temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future through midweek
of next week. A few episodes of showers will be possible Sunday
through the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated to expire freezing warning this morning.
Previous discussion...
The large eastern CONUS trof will continue to slowly
drift away from the region through the near/short term periods, with
sfc high pressure settling into the region into the start of the
weekend. Dry conditions will persist during this time.
Through this morning, WNW flow off the Great Lakes will keep some
lake-enhanced moisture streaming through nrn OH/IN, grazing far nrn
parts of the local area (central OH) with some clouds from time-to-
time. This is the only "fly-in-the-ointment" in an otherwise clear-
cut radiational cooling setup through this morning.
Fairly good radiational cooling conditions have become established
for the S/SW 3/4 of the local area this morning, which has allowed
for temps to dip into the lower 30s for many spots. This is
especially the case in rural/sheltered locales from EC IN through the
lower Scioto Valley into NE KY. In fact, some upper 20s certainly
could be possible in these areas around sunrise where calm wind can
be maintained. However, with light wind (~5kts) persisting for much
of the area, some spots may not fully decouple, potentially
inhibiting subfreezing temps in a more widespread fashion. Even with
this, along with the uncertainty from far nrn parts of WC through
central OH regarding clouds/temps through sunrise, the Freeze Warning
remains as is area-wide, even with the possibility of lows in the
mid/upper 30s in the cloudier/breezier spots.
A mix of sun and clouds (with more sun than clouds) is expected
during the daytime, with highs in the mid 50s (N/NE) to around 60
degrees in the Tri-State and N KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure drifts E of the local area tonight through
Saturday, with NE LL flow becoming established. Flow aloft will
gradually become a bit more zonal as a S/W pivots SE into the Great
Lakes region with a more well-defined closed low meandering about
the south-central plains. The evolution/interaction of these two
initially-distinct features into Sunday/Monday is somewhat
uncertain, with guidance still quite variable with how the pattern
will set up into early next week for us locally.
But in the meantime, dry conditions will persist through Saturday as
some mid/high level moisture begins to stream in from the WSW. Highs
will again top out in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
But before we get to that point, some frost is expected once again
tonight into Saturday morning with clear skies/light winds across
the OH Vly. In fact, the setup for frost, with potential for
freezing temps, will be better tonight into early Saturday morning
for parts of central OH and the lower Scioto Vly into NE KY than will
be the case this morning, owing to clearer skies and calmer winds.
This being said, there is some uncertainty regarding what counties,
if any, may be cleared from the program after this morning given the
expectation for some freezing temps in the local area around
daybreak. So, the decision was made to hold off for now on any
potential frost/freeze headlines for Saturday morning before we can
assess whether the growing season is ended this morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure shifts further northeast of the Ohio Valley on
Saturday night and Sunday. Cloud cover increases from the southwest
through Sunday evening as an upper level trough approaches from west.
Forcing should remain far enough to the west that dry weather should
continue into Sunday evening.
Rain chances increase Sunday night and persist into much of next
week when upper level troughing moves into the eastern CONUS.
Forecast uncertainty is high since the amplitude and progression of
the trough varies greatly between ensemble members. Some members
have a high amplitude trough cutting off into the interior northeast
while other members have a lower amplitude trough progressing
through the Ohio Valley before forming a coastal low. Until this
feature is better resolved, forecast details remain murky.
Interactions with Melissa is driving a large amount of the forecast
uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aside from some river valley BR/FG and corresponding MVFR/IFR
VSBY/CIGs at KLUK in the several hours around daybreak, VFR
conditions will prevail area-wide through the TAF period. Some SCT
VFR stratocu will persist for nrn sites into the afternoon. Mid/high
clouds will be on the increase from the SW toward 12z Saturday
Westerly winds around 5kts will increase to around 6-8kts this afternoon,
gradually becoming northerly past 00z as they subside once again.
Light LL flow will go easterly by daybreak Saturday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 9:02 AM EDT---------------
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