IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:35 PM EDT641
FXUS63 KIND 231835
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freeze Warning tonight and early Friday morning
- Periodic chances for rain Sunday through the middle of next
week
- Near to below normal temperatures in the 40s and 50s next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
A broad upper level trough continues to maintain itself over the
eastern Canadian Provinces, ushering cold NW flow into the Ohio
Valley. This cold air advection is addition in low level height
rises today, resulting in a localized area of high pressure. Still,
there is enough mid level moisture on the periphery of the upper
trough for scattered diurnal cu across NE portions of the area, with
clear skies elsewhere. This push of cooler air is keeping high
temperatures this afternoon well bellow normal, with expected highs
in the mid 50s.
Tonight, the combination of much cooler air and building surface
high pressure will provide us with the coldest night since April.
These conditions will allow for efficient diurnal cooling with lows
expected to drop well into the 20s near river valleys and near 30
elsewhere. For this reason, a Freeze Warning has been issued for all
of central Indiana starting at 2AM, and continuing until 9AM
tomorrow morning
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
The large high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern Friday and Saturday with dry conditions expected beneath
broad subsidence. The polar airmass will likely remain through this
period, but greater overnight winds should allow for overnight
temperatures to rebound slowly each day with lows in the mid 30s
Friday night and low 40s Saturday night.
With the strong high well establish across the eastern portion of
North America this weekend, this should allow for anomalous
streamwise vorticity across the Canadian Rockies, inducing height
falls and a synoptic scale trough to form by early next week.
Initially, this should lead to a weak shortwave across the
southern Plains pushing eastward Sunday through Monday, and then a
larger low pressure system to dive to the SE within the stronger
supergeostrophic jet streak Tuesday and Wednesday.
Ensemble members are still widely varied on the placement of both
waves, but generally agree on the second low quickly diving south,
and becoming detached from the Polar Jet next week. As is becomes
detached, the steering flow wanes keeping this close low near the
Ohio Valley into next weekend. Both systems should provide periods
of rainfall next week, but will greatly depend on how the each low
phases and tracks through the central US. With the first low likely
to pass to the south and the closed low originating from the
Canadian Rockies, near to below normal temperatures should remain
within the long term.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Impacts:
- Peak wind gusts around 20kt this afternoon
Discussion:
High pressure has expanded into the Ohio Valley as the deep upper
low lifts away slowly to the northeast. This feature will remain in
close enough proximity for breezy conditions again later today
although winds will be lower than the last few days. Expect gusts to
peak around 20kts in the afternoon. Some scattered cumulus around
4000ft has formed over portions of central Indiana, but VFR
conditions will still remain. These clouds should dissipate quickly
near sunset.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:35 PM EDT---------------
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