LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:37 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...263
FXUS63 KLMK 241737
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
137 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cold morning across southern Indiana and central Kentucky with
Frost and Freeze headlines in effect.
* Remaining cool and dry through the first half of the weekend.
* Rain chances increase Sunday into early next week with unsettled
weather and cool temperatures over the Ohio Valley.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
After a cold start that had many locations drop to or even below
freezing this morning across southern IN/central KY, temperatures
have warmed into the low 50s for most as of 15z. The frost/freeze
headlines were allowed to expire and the rest of the forecast
remains on track for this afternoon with mostly sunny skies, some
increasing high clouds and afternoon temperatures climbing into the
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
A cold morning is ongoing across the area as temps have dipped well
into the 30s in most spots. Widespread frost looks like it will be a
good bet by dawn given the current temps, but still a little iffy on
just how widespread the freezing and sub-freezing temps will be in
the Freeze Warning area. Currently, there are 3 mesonet sites at or
below freezing, and several others close. Given that we still have 4-
5 hours to go before daytime heating commences it appears plenty of
areas will be at or below freezing before it is all said and done.
We are getting some high clouds streaming overhead, which may
increase a bit toward dawn, but overall see no reason to change the
headlines as they are pretty decently on track at the moment.
Outside of that, little to talk about from a sensible weather
perspective. High pressure remains in control today with temps
climbing out of the cellar into the upper 50s and low 60s for most.
a few mid 60s still possible south. Upper sky cover will gradually
increase through the day, so highs may be a degree or two cooler
than yesterday.
Tonight, looks to be another chilly night specifically across our NE
CWA where high clouds will stay away longest and there will be time
to radiate out. Here, some lows solidly in the mid 30s may again be
possible. Won't issue any Frost Advisory headlines just yet til' we
collaborate with ag partners to determine the extent of this
morning's frost/freeze. May end up needing a headline in the
Bluegrass counties of KY, but that can be handled later today if
need be. Otherwise, look for milder lows in the upper 30s and low
40s across the rest of the CWA due to increased sky cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Saturday - Saturday Night...
Brief upper ridging builds in Saturday between a shortwave digging
across the Great Lakes region, and a central Plains closed low. This
will keep us dry with temps in the 60s under plenty of mid and upper
sky cover. Will mention that a few data points still suggest some
very light precipitation setting up across our northern CWA due to
some increased mid level moisture convergence. Will keep a very
small chance in for Sat PM, but slightly better chances for very
light rain arrive overnight with continued increasing mid and upper
level moisture. Time heights do show a pretty dry layer below H7
initially, so it will take a bit of time to saturate the lower
levels. Even then, rates will be quite light.
Sunday - Thursday...
The upper ridging gives way by Sunday, and we'll see a weakly
defined Rex Block slide from the central CONUS into our area. We'll
likely catch a section of the meandering closed low or perhaps an
open wave by then. Either way, we'll see deeper moisture associated
with this feature, which will bring scattered shower chances for
Sunday, possibly lingering through early to mid week as a very
complex upper pattern evolves. Still low confidence in any fine
details as an anomalously deep trough will likely develop through
early to mid week with another intense shortwave diving into the
mix. The end result for sensible weather will feature below normal
temperatures and off and on rain chances each day. Look for temps
generally in the upper 50s and low 60s, along with small diurnal
ranges and low in the 40s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Sfc high pressure will keep VFR flight categories through the
forecast period. Winds look mainly variable through the first part
of the period with winds becoming more easterly during the day
tomorrow. High clouds will also increase overnight into tomorrow as
the next system slowly approaches from the Four Corners region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:37 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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