IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 2:46 AM EDT731
FXUS63 KIND 220646
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
246 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions again today
- Frost expected tonight through Friday night with subfreezing
temperatures possible Thursday night
- Seasonably cool and dry through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Stratocu covered most of the northern half of the forecast area
early this morning with mainly clear skies further south. A few
sprinkles and light showers continued to move quickly across
northeast counties. With gusty westerly winds temperatures ranged
from the 40s to lower 50s at 06Z.
The strong upper level low over northern lower Michigan remains the
prevalent weather feature producing a broad cloud shield
encompassing the Great Lakes and extending south into northern
portions of the Ohio Valley. The upper low will shift east into
western Quebec gradually through tonight but the region will remain
firmly in the grasp of a deep trough covering most of the eastern
half of the country. Cool and windy conditions will continue with
clouds slowly diminishing by late day into this evening as the upper
low moves away.
A subtle wave aloft rippling around the base of the upper low will
shift east of the area over the next few hours with the few light
showers ending. The stratocu shield will remain across the northeast
half of the forecast area for much of today with abundant sunshine
focused over much of the southwest half of central Indiana where dry
air and subsidence will be more prevalent. The primary focus will
once again be on the winds as a tight surface pressure gradient
lingers between surface ridging over the Missouri Valley and the
surface low moving away to the northeast. Model soundings show near
dry adiabatic flow through the boundary layer this afternoon which
would support pulling stronger winds in the 925-850mb layer to the
surface. Peak gusts will be at 30 to 35mph with strongest winds
focused over the northeast part of the forecast area.
The cloud shield will slowly lift out to the northeast by this
evening with mainly clear skies developing across the entire area as
surface ridging approaches form the west. Focus will then turn to
potential for frost as temperatures fall into the 30s. With the
ridge axis to our west for most of the night...remain skeptical that
the boundary layer will be able to fully decouple with the potential
for winds to hover in the 5-10mph range. This would limit a more
widespread frost accrual across the area...likely to sheltered
locales where wind speeds can fall off to near calm levels. Plan on
holding off on a Frost Advisory at this point due to lower
confidence on coverage due to expected windspeeds. Will continue to
highlight risks via the HWO and graphical products.
Temps...much cooler today with the cloud shield almost providing a
chilly feel to the air in tandem with the cloud deck. Low level
thermals support highs in the low to mid 50s northeast of I-74 with
upper 50s further southwest. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and
upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
An amplified upper level flow pattern will continue across the
country for much of the rest of the work...highlighted by the
aforementioned upper low and associated trough lifting slowly into
eastern Canada while a ridge over the western U S moves east.
Eventually the upper flow will transition to a quasi-zonal split
flow regime bringing warmer air and an increasing risk for showers
by the weekend.
A strong phased upper level jet diving out of the northern Pacific
will carve out a deep trough across the western half of the country
by Monday that will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
by the middle of next week. The energy aloft will induce surface
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies Monday then intensify as it moves
into the upper Midwest. This will bring an increasingly wet...windy
and unsettled pattern developing for the Ohio Valley through the
first half of next week.
Thursday through Friday Night
While cool cyclonic flow will continue on Thursday courtesy of the
nearby upper low to our northeast...surface ridging will finally
build across the region on the back side of the departing system.
With progressively deeper subsidence as well...expect abundant
sunshine across the entire forecast area. It will remain breezy on
Thursday although peak gusts will be lower than with the stronger
wind field surrounding the upper low moving away from the region.
Mainly clear skies will start on Friday with increasing clouds by
late day. Highs both Thursday and Friday will largely reside in the
mid and upper 50s.
The primary concern for late week will be on the potential for
widespread frost Thursday and Friday nights with the first Fall
freeze a possibility on Thursday night as well.Ideal radiational
cooling conditions develop for Thursday night with clear skies and
near calm winds. Confidence continues to increase in subfreezing
temperatures for much of central Indiana...especially across the
northwest half of the forecast area. Strong model support is present
for lows to fall to near 30 degrees over much of central Indiana by
Friday morning. Some highly sheltered areas could see a hard freeze
of 28 but that remains on the lower end of the model spread. The
urbanized parts of the Indy metro and Bloomington may remain just
above freezing but subfreezing temperatures are likely even in the
outlying suburbs. Will continue to highlight the frost/freeze risk
in the HWO and via graphical products but a headline will likely be
needed either later today or tonight.
Frost is possible again Friday night but confidence in impacts is
lower with clouds increasing and slightly higher winds. The greatest
potential for frost will focus across the northeast half of the
forecast area with temperatures falling into the mid 30s.
Saturday Through Tuesday.
A weak upper low over the southern Plains will spread increasing
moisture aloft up and over a ridge focused across the deep South.
This will bring increased cloud cover this weekend but the presence
of the high pressure to the east will serve as a blocking mechanism
to more substantial moisture advection with only a low chance for a
few showers. Forecast confidence decreases heading into early next
week as models begin to differ on the evolution of the low pressure
over the High Plains by Monday. While details are challenging at
this point with broad model variance...signals support increasing
threats for wind and rain by Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
recover into the low and mid 60s for Sunday and Monday with
southerly flow developing but cooler air is likely by the middle of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Impacts:
- Peak wind gusts up to 25kt overnight, increasing to 30kts at times
later today
- Low risk for scattered MVFR ceilings at KLAF through the first
half of the day
Discussion:
Broad low pressure sits over the Great Lakes with a large area of
gusty winds and cloud cover wrapped around it. A thick stratocu deck
will impact KLAF and possibly KIND at times...becoming more
scattered with southwestward extent. A period of clearing is
possible tonight for KHUF and KBMG before clouds redevelop after
sunrise. MVFR stratocu may make it down to KLAF at times after
daybreak and through the first half of the day with decks near 5kft
elsewhere. All terminals are expected to see improvement in sky
cover by this evening as the upper low begins to move away to the
northeast.
Winds will remain the primary impact for aviators through much of
the period...with westerly winds gusting up to 25kts at times
through the night...then increasing again by midday to 30kts or
slightly higher. Winds will finally diminish after sunset.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 2:46 AM EDT---------------
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