MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 6:27 AM CDT ...New Aviation...481
FXUS64 KMOB 071127
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Most of the earlier convection has dwindled for the evening with the
exception of a small band of light to moderate showers quickly
traversing westward across the coastal counties as of 05z. Most of
the high-res guidance has been hinting at showers and storms flaring
up over the Gulf and near the coastline throughout the overnight and
early morning hours. We don't expect much out of this overnight
round as it's moving at a fast pace - just a good soaking. As we
roll toward the afternoon hours, some of the high-res guidance
lights up across parts of southeast MS and southwest AL between 19-
23z, especially for locations west of I-65. The 3-hr HREF PMMs
highlight the aforementioned areas with 2+ inches of rain by the
late afternoon hours. Similar to the past few days, not everywhere
in our area will see rain today, it will be hit or miss, but expect
a good downpour if you do get rain today.
Forcing for showers and storms remains minimal again on Wednesday as
the ridge aloft continues to slide westward across the Gulf. Expect
isolated coverage on Wednesday afternoon area-wide. As the ridge
continues to backbuild westward, the door opens for a shortwave to
dive southward toward the region late in the week as flow aloft
turns northwesterly. A weak front will slide across the region late
in the week with a surge of much drier air filtering into the area
later in the weekend.
Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains HIGH through tonight,
however, there are indications in the rip current MOS guidance that
we should start to see a steady fall after sunset this evening. The
risk remains MODERATE Wednesday and Thursday for coastal Alabama and
northwest Florida beaches. MOS guidance indicates a sharp increase
in the rip current probabilities Thursday night into Friday with
probabilities indicating a solid HIGH risk on Friday. Conditions
should quickly subside through the day on Saturday and into Sunday.
07/mb
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
IFR/MVFR ceilings near the coast and over portions of southeast
Mississippi and further inland across southwest Alabama improve to
predominately VFR conditions by midday, with VFR conditions
meanwhile prevailing over the remainder of the area. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across the
area today then taper off by the early evening. IFR/MVFR
conditions accompany the stronger storms. Easterly winds 5-10
knots become southeasterly this morning, then diminish by this
evening. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Exercise caution conditions expected over the offshore waters
through late this morning. No impact expected other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms late Tuesday
and Wednesday. Advisory level conditions are possible late in the
week as a front slides across the Gulf. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 85 70 87 68 86 64 78 61 / 50 20 20 10 10 10 0 0
Pensacola 85 73 87 71 86 66 80 64 / 30 10 20 10 20 10 0 0
Destin 85 73 87 72 86 66 81 64 / 20 10 10 10 20 10 0 0
Evergreen 89 68 89 65 86 59 80 54 / 30 20 20 10 20 10 0 0
Waynesboro 85 68 85 62 83 61 77 57 / 40 20 20 0 10 0 0 0
Camden 87 68 87 64 81 59 76 56 / 30 30 20 10 10 10 0 0
Crestview 87 69 89 67 86 61 80 57 / 20 10 20 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 6:27 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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