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789 FXUS64 KLIX 031846AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA146 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Rain and storm chances slowly increase through the weekend. Highest rain chances will be on Sunday. - Winds and seas will remain hazardous through this weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions. - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county is expected into the weekend.&&.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025A weak low pressure system embedded within a deep layer easterlyflow pattern will pass just offshore of the region over theweekend before moving inland and dissipating Sunday into Monday.At the same time, a persistent high pressure system over Mid-Atlantic states will remain in place. A tight pressure gradientwill be in place between these systems across the region, and thiswill allow for a persistent east wind of 10 to 15 mph with gustsof 20 to 25 mph through the weekend. These persistent easterlywinds will push water up onto east facing shorelines, and someminor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected during high tide cycles. These east facing shorelines,including flood prone areas in Hancock County, eastern OrleansParish, and Lower St. Bernard Parish, are covered by a coastal flood advisory through Sunday afternoon. Increased moisture will also take place within this deeper easterly flow regime, but a north- south oriented moisture gradient will continue into tomorrow over the forecast area aseast-northeast mid-level winds keep some dry air advection inplace. Moisture will finally begin to advect further inland on Sunday as the weak surface low in the Gulf moves further west and mid- level winds shift to a more southeasterly direction. PWATS will increase dramatically for areas north of the I-10 corridor, and all of the forecast area is expected to see some rainfall. However, heavy rainfall should remain confined to areas south of I-10. This is where PWATS will approach the daily maximum for this time of year. This area is within a marginal risk for localized flash flooding on Sunday and rainfall totals could approach 2 to 3 inches in a few locations. More urban areas like the Southshore will have the highest risk of seeing some street flooding concerns. Greater cloud cover from the convective development associated with the low will also help to moderate temperatures. Highs will run near or slightly cooler than average through the weekend in the low to mid 80s and lows will be a bit warmer than average in the upper 60s and lower 70s. &&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night)Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025A broad and weak area of high pressure will build over the area onMonday and Tuesday, but the region will also continue to see somelingering moisture in the low to mid-levels as an easterly flowpattern persists. This lingering moisture will combine with a slightly more unstable airmass from warmer daytime highs in the mid 80s to produce some scattered shower and thunderstorm activityin the afternoon hours on both Monday and Tuesday. The higher dewpoints and warmer temperatures will produce a more June like feel to the atmosphere and max heat index readings could peak intothe upper 90s each afternoon.Going into the mid-portion of next week, forecast confidencedecreases as the spread between the various model solutions rises.Some of the solutions indicate that a stronger northern streamtrough will drive a weak frontal boundary toward the region latenext week, but other solutions keep the ridging and overall drierconditions in place at the end of the week. The only degree ofconfidence that is higher is that the easterly flow pattern will intensify over the region as another weak low in the Gulf passes south of the area. Given the uncertainty, have opted to stick withthe blended NBM solution for Wednesday and Thursday. This solution keeps temperatures warmer than average, and also has a north-south oriented moisture and PoP gradient across the region.Much like the pattern observed today and tomorrow, higher PoP will be confined to the coast with largely dry conditions in placenorth of I-10. A temperature gradient will also exist as clouds and showers keep temperatures a bit cooler along the coast, but sunnier skies allow highs to climb into the upper 80s further inland. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025A low pressure system offshore of Louisiana will keep a persistenteast-northeast wind of 10 to 15 knots in place at all of the terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, largely VFRconditions are expected at the majority of the terminals as drierair limits low cloud and rain development. However, HUM will see ahigher probability of some rain showers and brief periods of MVFRvisibilities both this afternoon and again through the morninghours tomorrow. A PROB30 group has been added to account for theserain showers. At MSY, the rain probabilities remain low for the next 24 hours, but probabilities climb high enough to warrant PR0B30 groups for passing showers after 18z tomorrow. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025A broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf and a highpressure system over the eastern seaboard will keep a persistenteasterly flow of 15 to 25 knots in place across all of the watersthrough Sunday. These winds will also have a pretty long fetchacross the eastern Gulf waters, and this will support higher seasof up to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters due to a combination ofwind waves and swell. Small craft advisories are in effect throughSunday evening due to these hazardous conditions. The high willstart to become more dominant over the waters on Monday andTuesday, and this will allow the easterly winds to relax a bit tobetween 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4 feet asthe winds relax. However, this respite looks short-lived asanother low in the central Gulf forms by Wednesday. Increasedeasterly winds of around 20 knots and higher seas will once againtake hold to close out the week. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 65 87 67 82 / 0 10 10 40 BTR 68 87 69 84 / 0 10 10 50 ASD 66 84 67 81 / 20 20 30 60 MSY 74 82 73 81 / 20 30 40 60 GPT 69 83 69 81 / 20 30 40 60 PQL 66 83 68 81 / 20 20 40 60 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ069-070-076- 078.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-570- 572.MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538- 555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
