CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 7:25 PM EDT548
FXUS61 KCLE 012325
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
725 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in eastern Canada and will move
southeast across the northeastern United States through the weekend.
Low pressure will develop across the central United States and will
bring a cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build into eastern Canada and move down
into eastern CONUS over the near term. Weather will continue to be
dry with increased winds out of the northeast today. Strongest winds
will be downwind of Lake Erie in northwestern Ohio and could see
gusts approach 25 mph this evening. Along the lakeshore, winds could
gust to around 20 mph as well. Additionally, there will be a fairly
dry airmass moving into the region and dew points will be dropping
into the 30s with RH values between 20-30 percent away from the
lakeshore.
Temperatures overnight tonight will drop down into the mid to low
40s for the majority of the region. There's potential across
northwestern Pennsylvania for temperatures to drop down into the
upper 30s. Frost potential across the area is low at this time.
Trends have continued with winds still being too high and some
incoming cloud cover. Though, can't rule out some patchy frost could
form in some areas. Temperatures on Thursday will warm slightly
along the lakeshore due to winds being weaker and being more
southerly. Highs will range from the low 70s in the east to close to
80 out west. Overnight lows Thursday will be warmer than the
previous night, dropping down into the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to move into New England and then off
the east coast through the weekend. The high will continue to
maintain influence over the region and dry weather is expected.
Temperatures will gradually warm over the short term and highs will
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue for the beginning of the long term as
the high pressure drifts off the east coast. Models show an upper
level trough developing over central Canada early next week and
progressing to the east through mid week. The strength of the trough
varies among the models, but have been fairly consistent with the
timing. A cold front will likely move across the region Tuesday to
Wednesday with precipitation chances increasing. Temperatures will
continue to be slightly above average to start the week and then
fall to around to just below normal mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure over the Northeast U.S. will lead to continued VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Am expecting enough wind
through the night tonight to keep any fog very localized and
confined to a few deeper valleys. East winds will shift
southeast through tonight while decreasing to <7kt. Winds
increase slightly to 5-10kt on Thursday while remaining
southeasterly. There may be just enough of a lake breeze to
shift winds more northeast at ERI after 17 or 18z.
Outlook...Isolated fog with non-VFR possible at and around
daybreak Friday, mainly in NW OH. Otherwise, fair weather and
widespread VFR are expected through this Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect until 2 AM EDT
Thursday along the Lake Erie shore from Lucas County, OH to Erie
County, PA. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 2 AM
Thursday from Maumee Bay, OH to Ripley, NY. The ending time for
these alerts still appears reasonable based on latest trends in
our marine forecast.
A ridge affects Lake Erie through this Monday as the embedded
high pressure center moves from northern QC to Atlantic waters
just southeast of Nantucket. NE'erly to E'erly winds as strong
as 15 to 25 knots through midnight tonight ease to 5 to 15 knots
and veer to SE'erly by daybreak Thursday. Accordingly, waves as
large as 3 to 7 feet through about midnight tonight subside to
3 feet or less by daybreak. On Thursday through this Monday,
winds are expected to vary between SE'erly and SW'erly around 5
to 15 knots. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected.
Note: this is the last Beach Hazards Statement of the season. The
end of September marks the end of the Surf Zone Forecast product
and the issuance of Beach Hazards Statements until next spring.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-007-
009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 7:25 PM EDT---------------
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