ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 8:04 PM EDT920
FXUS61 KILN 280004
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
804 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry and mild conditions through the middle
part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region tonight. Any cu will dissipate toward sunset, leaving
mostly clear skies tonight. With light winds, areas of mainly river
valley fog can be expected again later tonight. Lows tonight will be
in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure and the dry airmass will remain in place across
the region Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will be seasonably
warm with highs on Sunday in the mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will
again be in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, surface high pressure and upper ridging will
extend from New York westward across the Great Lakes and northern
Ohio Valley. Although this ridge and surface high are expected to
modulate somewhat, and perhaps shift around slightly with time,
these features will remain the dominant weather features for the ILN
CWA through the extended forecast period. Forecast trends for the
tropical system (currently Tropical Depression 9) have moved toward
a solution that will keep this system out of the Ohio Valley, and
possibly off the coast of the CONUS entirely. This appears to be a
result of a stronger forecast for Hurricane Humberto (exerting a
stronger influence on now-TD9) and a lack of a clear path northward
due to the ridging over the north-central and northeastern CONUS. As
indicated in the 11AM NHC discussion, there are still some computer
model ensemble members suggesting the system could make landfall,
but even if this were to occur the chances for impacts over the Ohio
Valley now appear very small.
A general downward trend in temperatures is expected through the
week. Even though the tropical system is expected to remain away
from the area, the cool and dry area of high pressure will lead to
easterly / northeasterly flow, with negative theta-e advection. Max
temps on Tuesday are expected to be in the lower 80s (above normal)
before moving into the mid 70s by Thursday (close to normal). This
dry air mass will likely keep skies mostly clear through the
forecast period, with little if any chances for rain. The forecast
through the end of the week will thus remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure and a dry airmass will offer clear skies and light
winds overnight. Areas of valley fog can be expected to develop late
tonight. This will lead to IFR to VLIFR conditions at KLUK late
tonight into early Sunday. Any fog will burn off quickly Sunday
morning with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 8:04 PM EDT---------------
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