CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 12:15 AM EDT ...06Z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...696
FXUS61 KCLE 010415
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1215 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...06Z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, dry cold front will move across the region this evening as
high pressure builds into eastern Canada. The high pressure will
move to the southeast through the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper level ridging will continue to build across central CONUS
today and progress eastward. At the surface, a weak cold front will
move across the region this evening, though the frontal passage will
be dry. As the high pressure builds in, there will be a stronger
pressure gradient and winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. The stronger winds and gusts are expected to be
downwind of Lake Erie in northwest Ohio. Winds will taper off after
sunset today, but will increase again tomorrow morning with the
diurnal cycle. Expect similar conditions to today with the highest
gusts around 20 mph over northwestern Ohio. Additionally, with
high pressure building in, the air mass is expected to be fairly
dry and dew points away from the lake shore will drop down into
the low 40s and upper 30s. Along the lake shore and in
northwest Ohio, dew points will stay in the upper 40s to low
50s.
Temperatures overnight tonight will drop into the upper 40s with
areas in northwestern Ohio only getting into the low 50s with the
wind off of the lake. For Wednesday, highs will be cooler than today
after the cold front passage and will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Overnight Wednesday, temperatures will be chilly with lows in
the mid to low 40s. There is a chance to see low temperatures
dip into the upper 30s in some areas in northwest Pennsylvania.
Will need to keep an eye on frost potential for late Wednesday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build into northeast CONUS through
the end of the week. With the eastern movement of the high,
temperatures will increase slightly though the air mass will remain
fairly dry in the short term. RH values will be down into the low
30s for Thursday and Friday for location inland. Temperatures will
be around normal for this time of year with highs in the mid 70s
and low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather will continue through the weekend and into early next
week. Long range models have a trough developing across central
Canada early next week and moving into the region mid week. PoP
chances should increase Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Temperatures in the long term will be above average with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be above
average as well, with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday night. High
pressure will remain in control of the weather with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be from the Northeast 5 to 10 knots
through this morning. Winds will increase 8 to 13 knots during
the day today through the afternoon. Gusty winds up to 20 knots
will return during the afternoon and relax after sunset this
evening.
Outlook...Patchy fog will be possible during the early morning
hours Thursday and Friday. VFR is expected otherwise.
&&
.MARINE...
The main marine weather concern will be brisk northeast winds on
the lake, picking up late this afternoon into this evening and
staying elevated until shifting more southeasterly late
Wednesday night. Winds will be 15-25kt late this afternoon/early
this evening through Wednesday evening, before shifting
southwesterly at 10-15kt late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Waves will increase to 4-7 feet across most of the lake this
evening through Wednesday, more like 3-5 feet west of the
islands. Winds gradually shift more south-southwesterly into the
weekend, but should mainly remain <15kt from Thursday through
the weekend. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements
remain in effect for the rough conditions beginning late this
afternoon and continuing through Wednesday. Note, this will be
the last Beach Hazards Statement of the season, as the end of
September marks the end of the Surf Zone Forecast product and
the issuance of Beach Hazards Statements until next spring.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007-
009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 12:15 AM EDT ...06Z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...---------------
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