PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 5:07 PM CDT792
FXUS63 KPAH 262207
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
507 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions are forecast through this weekend into early
next week.
- Temperatures will remain about 4 to 8 degrees above normal
through Monday, then cool slightly for the middle part of next
week.
- Moisture from a potential tropical disturbance off the
Carolina coast could bring a slight chance of showers by the
middle of next week, but for now the forecast remains dry.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Quiet and warm weather is forecast as we end September and open
October. Patchy shallow fog development is expected again
in the predawn hours Saturday, especially in low-lying areas.
Some of this could be locally dense across the MO Bootheel
northward along the Mississippi River. H5 troughing and weak
surface high pressure over the region today will gradually
translate towards the eastern seaboard during this weekend. As
H5 ridging increases from the central/southern Great Plains,
temperatures will warm to about 4-8 degrees above normal this
weekend into early next week.
The forecast for the middle to latter half of the next work is
more uncertain. The reason for this is that the lingering
troughing over the East Coast may draw westward tropical
moisture from a disturbance off the Carolina coast into the
region by mid-week. This may lead to an increase in cloud cover
and humidity levels, and perhaps a small chance of showers,
particularly in western Kentucky. However, confidence overall in
how this evolves is low given the uncertainty surrounding the
forecast intensity and path of the potential tropical
disturbance.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Despite the nearby presence of an upper level low to the south
and east, our terminals are more influenced by surface high
pressure that ridges directly overtop the airfields, providing
a prevailing stable, subsident circulation within the flight air
space. The result will be little more than FEW-SCT diurnally
driven bases that rises from the 5-7K FT AGL range over the
course of the heating hours. At night, clear skies and light
winds will contribute again to the development of patchy fog,
some of which could offer temporary late night/early daybreak
restrictions to vsbys. But if any impact the terminals, it will
be shallow and will disperse quickly after the sun rises.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 5:07 PM CDT---------------
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