JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 7:21 PM EDT190
FXUS63 KJKL 272321
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
721 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After any showers/thunderstorms die out in southeast Kentucky
early this evening, dry weather is expected through the day
Monday.
- Moisture from Tropical Depression Nine could combine with an
upper low to bring a chance of showers into east KY early next
week. Confidence is increasing that the impacts from the
tropical system will be minimal across the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Made minor updates to PoP grids, with all areas in the CWA
dropping below the 15 percent threshold beginning at 00z. Will
update the HWO at that time to remove mention of thunderstorms
from the forecast for the remainder of the Tonight period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
An upper level trough over the central and southern Appalachians
in conjunction with surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s in
southeast KY has resulted in scattered shower/thunderstorms near
the VA border this afternoon (with a greater concentration further
southeast). Further northwest in the forecast area, slightly
drier air has limited the instability and kept the weather dry.
The precipitation is expected to die out early this evening as
surface based instability wanes and the upper trough weakens and
shifts slowly east.
On Sunday, with the trough gone and upper level ridging building
over the Midwest and Ohio Valley, as well as slightly drier air
arriving in southeast KY, the whole forecast area is expected to
be dry. This will carry through Sunday night.
With decent radiating conditions and light winds, modest
ridge/valley low temperatures are forecast each night, along with
valley fog.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
The main theme for the extended period is the growing confidence
that developing tropical storm system off the southeast coasts will
have limited impact to east Kentucky except a chance of showers and
possible thunderstorm for late Monday through Wednesday.
NHC track forecasts along with ensemble analysis and deterministic
models depict this system moving into or just off the carolinas for
late Monday through Wednesday. Increasing sub-tropical moisture
along with a shear axis/deformation zone across the central and
southern Appalachians will produce a chance of convection over the
area early next week.
For Monday, upper trough remains over the southeast United States
with tropical storm off the Florida/Georgia coast. For east
Kentucky, upper ridge over the Ohio valley will produce mostly dry
conditions.
For Monday night through Wednesday, tropical system will be just off
or along the Carolina coast. A shear axis will move across the
central Appalachians into Kentucky. Associated deformation zone and
influx of sub-tropical moisture into the central and southern
Appalachians will produce a chance of showers. Instability is
limited so thunder is not expected. Mean ensemble QPF depicts only
light amounts over east Kentucky during this period.
As stated above, Confidence is increasing that the tropical track
will stay well east of the area with limited to no impacts over east
Kentucky.
For the latter half of next week, upper and surface ridging will
build over the Ohio valley into the Appalachians keeping conditions
mostly dry and pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the exception
of river valley fog developing after ~03z this evening, which will
bring VLIFR conditions. The sub-VFR conditions are likely to
evade TAF sites, however. The fog will dissipate Sunday morning,
with any scattered cumulus development Sunday afternoon likely
remaining southeast of the TAF sites toward the Virginia border.
Light and variable winds are expected through the period, but
increasing from the northeast at 4 to 8 kts between 15z and 18z
Sunday before diminishing toward the end of the TAF period Sunday
evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 7:21 PM EDT---------------
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