NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 25, 9:00 PM GMT704
WTNT42 KNHC 252034
TCDAT2
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025
Gabrielle has quickly lost tropical characteristics today in a
highly sheared environment. Dry air infiltrating the circulation has
left the low-level center partially exposed, and the overall cloud
pattern has become more linear ahead of an approaching baroclinic
system. Since Gabrielle no longer has organized deep convection and
is beginning to interact with fronts, it is best designated as a
post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt based
on earlier ASCAT data and the latest GFS and ECMWF wind fields.
Weather radar data from Flores Island in the Azores indicate showers
are spreading across the northwestern islands as conditions begin
to deteriorate.
The cyclone continues moving quickly eastward (080/26 kt) within
strong westerly mid-latitude flow. The center of Gabrielle will pass
quickly near or over the Azores later tonight and early Friday.
Gabrielle is forecast to gradually decelerate over the next few
days while eventually turning southeastward as a ridge builds to
the west over the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the post-tropical
cyclone should pass near or over the coast of Portugal later this
weekend. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast
with this update.
The global models continue to show some increase in Gabrielle's peak
winds tonight as the cyclone interacts with an approaching
baroclinic system and completes extratropical transition. The NHC
intensity forecast favors this solution and shows Gabrielle as a
65-kt post-tropical cyclone moving through the Azores early Friday.
Thereafter, steady weakening is forecast as the low becomes
vertically stacked and fills over the far eastern Atlantic. The
global models are in good agreement on this solution.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Gabrielle is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the
islands of the Azores later tonight and early Friday. Significant
hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores
even after the center passes.
2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday
morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 37.1N 31.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0600Z 38.3N 27.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 39.7N 21.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z 40.3N 16.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z 40.0N 12.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0600Z 38.7N 10.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.9N 8.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 35.5N 7.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 25, 9:00 PM GMT---------------
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