IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 6:57 PM EDT383
FXUS63 KIND 262257
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
657 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog possible again tonight, locally dense
- An otherwise lovely early autumn day today with clear skies this
afternoon, highs 76-80F
- Dry and unseasonably warm this weekend into next week, highs in
80s through Tuesday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Analysis shows broad and weak troughing in the mid to upper-levels
with subtle high pressure at the surface. Upper-level ridging
upstream should gradually build eastward this the weekend, leaving
us with generally quiet weather through the forecast period.
Overall, expect mainly clear skies with seasonable temperatures
trending warmer-than-normal by tomorrow into Sunday. Expect highs
climbing into the 80s with lows generally falling into the 50s.
Our primary forecast challenge concerns patchy fog developing
overnight. Like this morning, light winds within a broadly subsident
column should promote ideal radiative cooling potential during the
overnight hours tonight and this weekend. Recent rainfall has
moistened up the boundary layer sufficiently for patchy fog after
sunset. Additionally, little in the way of an air mass change is
anticipated so rich low-level moisture should linger for a few days.
Conditions for fog should become less favorable with time, however,
as ground moisture slowly evaporates a little more each day. Still,
moisture is abundant enough for now that some instances of dense fog
cannot be ruled out. The best chance of fog is in areas that saw the
most rainfall, in agricultural/rural areas, and along river valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Dry and warm pattern is expected to persist through most, if not
all, of the long term period. An omega block will be in place at the
start of the period which models show should break down within a few
days, but an area of high pressure is expected to stick around the
Great Lakes through next week. By late next week, another blocking
pattern may set up again, keeping the warm, dry set up in place into
the extended period. There are still quite a few unknowns as
multiple tropical systems are ongoing in the Atlantic, and models
have varying resolutions for their tracks, mainly for the
disturbance near Cuba. For now, it seems most likely that these
systems will help to keep the nearby high from progressing eastward
much. However, can't rule out the chance of some of the remnants
tracking into the region at some point next week, which could
potentially introduce some PoPs for central Indiana. Otherwise,
warmth and dryness is the name of the game for a while.
Highs through the long term will be above normal, starting off from
the mid 80s and into the upper 70s. Lows will be in the 50s to near
60.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 657 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of a minimal
threat for MVFR fog towards daybreak tomorrow. Much drier surface
air will help to limit fog coverage with chances for MVFR conditions
less than 20 percent at any given terminal. Diurnal cu at around 050
will return tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise skies should remain
mostly clear to clear through the TAF period with light and variable
winds.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...White
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 6:57 PM EDT---------------
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