LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 8:31 PM EDT103
FXUS63 KLMK 280031
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
831 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Patchy fog possible Sunday morning.
* Warming temperatures expected through Tuesday.
* Some uncertainty for next week, but the forecast remains mostly
dry and warm.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Mid-evening satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region.
Temperatures were already showing the typical ridge/valley split
with the valleys in the low-mid 60s and the ridges still in the
upper 60s to around 70. Current forecast for the overnight
continues to look on target. Clear skies and light winds should
result in some patchy fog formation, especially in the low-lying and
river valley locations. Did a quick refresh of the grids to bring
grids in line with obs. Updated products will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
High pressure is over the region and a weakening upper low has
allowed for an afternoon Cu field to develop over the region and
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s. This Cu field
will dissipate around sunset this evening.
The upper low will continue to weaken and push off to the northeast,
as building ridging moves in from the west. This will help to keep
clear skies and light winds over the region tonight and tomorrow.
Given rising heights over the region, we will expect temperatures to
be a bit warmer than today. Lows are expected to be in the mid-to-
upper 50s and low 60s in urban areas. Highs are expected to be in
the low-to-mid 80s.
With clear skies and light winds, could see some patchy fog
development, especially in river valley areas in the morning.
Given the dry upper profile, we could see some mild dry air mix down
which would bring dew points into the low-to-mid 50s over most of
the area. Some spots which could briefly touch the upper 40s during
peak heating.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
===== Monday - Monday Night =====
Ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered just to the
northeast of the region will allow continued warm and dry
conditions. Temperatures may be around 10 degrees warmer than normal
Monday afternoon.
Tropical Cyclone Nine will be just off the Atlantic Coast of
central Florida and likely sling moisture NW into the Appalachians,
but likely not making it much further.
===== Tuesday - Friday =====
As Tropical Cyclone Nine moves north and just off the coast of
Georgia and South Carolina, moisture will continue to push NW into
the Appalachians, where some moisture will enter eastern Kentucky.
Still expecting dry conditions over central Kentucky and southern
Indiana, but wouldn't rule out a few brief showers over our far
eastern counties Tuesday and Wednesday.
Otherwise, as the tropical system nears the mid-Atlantic coast and
stalls, it will work to break down the ridging and allow heights to
fall. This will bring temperatures back to near normal values by the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across
the region overnight and into Sunday. VFR conditions are expected
overnight at most of the terminals. KHNB may fog up after 28/08Z,
similar to this morning. After sunrise, expect another Cu field for
Sunday afternoon with light northeasterly winds.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 8:31 PM EDT---------------
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