LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 6:53 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...328
FXUS63 KLMK 271053
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
653 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Patchy fog possible this morning and Sunday morning.
* Dry with warming temperatures expected this weekend.
* Some uncertainty for next week, but the current forecast is for
mostly dry and warm conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A closed upper level low is over the TN Valley early this morning,
with deep moisture streaming northward along and east of the
Appalachians. Brief saturation in the lower levels is producing some
brief cloudiness across south-central KY early this morning. These
clouds are not likely to persist, but we will see additional SCT cu
in the afternoon.
The upper low is forecast to rotate eastward through tomorrow while
weakening. Meanwhile, amplifying ridging is forecast to build east
across the Plains and Midwest. This will maintain a dry airmass and
light N/NE winds. Rising heights aloft and increasing low-level
thicknesses will support slightly warmer temps each day. Look for
mostly sunny skies today with highs around 80-84 F.
Tonight looks clear and calm, with patchy fog. Sunday morning lows
will be in the mid/upper 50s in most areas. Temperatures will
rebound quickly Sunday morning, with afternoon highs in the 82-87 F
range. Dry conditions will continue Sunday night, with a light NE
wind and lows in the mid 50s to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
===== Monday - Monday Night =====
Continued dry conditions still look likely through Monday. Ridging
at the surface and aloft will be centered north of the region, with
dry NE flow. By this time, however, NC and VA will likely be seeing
more substantial easterly moisture advection to the north of
tropical systems in the western Atlantic. NHC has high confidence in
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine becoming a tropical storm within 48
hours. NHC's latest forecast takes this tropical storm NNW off the
east coast of Florida on Monday. Moisture streaming west on the
north side of the tropical system will likely only reach the
southern Appalachians by Monday, keeping central KY and southern IN
dry. Expect another pleasant morning and warm afternoon, with highs
in the low to mid 80s.
===== Tuesday - Friday =====
As NHC has indicated, there is considerably more uncertainty in the
track of the tropical systems in the western Atlantic beyond Monday.
For the western storm (currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine),
guidance indicates this cyclone will slow/stall as it approaches the
South Carolina coast midweek.
Rainfall chances briefly increase slightly during the midweek period
as Atlantic moisture attempts to cross the Appalachians. These rain
chances appear to peak on Tuesday across eastern Kentucky.
Otherwise, relatively dry and pleasant weather looks possible for
the remainder of the week. Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s look
possible, with lows in the 50s to around 60.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions prevail through much of this forecast period. SCT
clouds around 5-6 kft will be possible today. N/NNE winds will be
light through the period, increasing to 5-6 kts between 16-00Z
today. Additional fog will be possible early Sunday morning, mainly
at HNB.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 6:53 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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