NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 26, 9:00 AM GMT026
WTNT42 KNHC 260840
TCDAT2
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025
Gabrielle continues to produce a patch of convection to the
northeast of the center, which is most likely along a frontal
boundary in this area. The center is currently moving through the
central Azores where tropical-storm conditions and wind gusts to
hurricane-force have been reported. In addition, sustained
hurricane-force winds have been reported in the elevated
mountainous areas of Terceira and Sao Miguel Islands. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from the
previous advisory.
While the center has moved a little to the left of the previous
track during the past few hours, the overall motion remains
east-northeastward or 070/25 kt. Gabrielle should continue
east-northeastward for the next day or so with a decrease in
forward speed, and this motion should bring the center away from
the Azores today. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn
eastward and southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal.
This should be followed by an even slower southeastward to
southward motion while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates
near southern Portugal and northern Morocco. The new forecast track
is shifted a bit to the north of the previous track based mainly on
the more northerly initial position.
Gabrielle is almost finished its extratropical transition, with
satellite imagery indicating a cold front forming to the southeast
and south of the center in addition to the frontal boundary to the
north. The global models suggest little change in strength for the
next 24 h, followed by a gradual weakening. The new intensity
forecast is based mainly on a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models,
and it now calls for the system to dissipate between 72-96 h.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.
This should occur sometime later today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions, with
gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern Azores
this morning, with hurricane-force winds possible at higher
elevations.
2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
3. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the
central Azores should subside today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 39.1N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1800Z 40.1N 21.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0600Z 40.7N 16.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1800Z 40.5N 12.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z 39.0N 9.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1800Z 37.4N 8.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0600Z 36.0N 7.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 26, 9:00 AM GMT---------------
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